When $SPY prints 6 red candles in row ?

When $SPY prints 6 red candles in row ?

$SPY 6 red candles in row stock chart

with $SPY posting six red candles ( Open>Close) in row , below the trading odds for longs for the next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 trading days , for longs on $SPY , since 2000.

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 24 14 58.3 0.46 0.12 1.59 -1.13 1.41 -2.62
t+2 24 16 66.7 1.14 0.43 2.39 -1.36 1.75 -3.95
t+3 24 16 66.7 1.25 0.30 2.71 -1.67 1.63 -3.24
t+4 24 14 58.3 1.46 0.42 3.45 -1.31 2.63 -3.91
t+5 24 15 62.5 1.81 0.82 3.75 -1.42 2.64 -4.82
t+10 24 14 58.3 0.81 0.83 3.55 -3.03 1.17 -7.42
t+20 24 16 66.7 2.91 2.77 5.67 -2.62 2.16 -5.00
Swing High 24 21 87.5 1.34 0.69 1.82 -1.97 0.92 -4.82

that Swing High, column , is made with the assumption that, one goes long at close and exits at first higher close than current close in the next five trading days , or exit at the end of the fifth trading day with loss

21/24 (87% ) times $SPY closed higher over the next 5 trading day at some close , when $SPY made 6 red candles in row,  since 2000.

below the prior instances of $SPY red candles in row , and the next 1/2/3/4/5 trading day returns , since 2000 . highlighted in red were the instances where $SPY failed to close higher than the current close in the next five trading days .

Date $SPY # Red Candles t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
27-Jan-14 178.01 6 ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
19-Dec-11 115.35 6 3.03 3.22 4.14 5.07 5.16
25-Nov-11 110.86 7 2.9 3.19 7.43 7.41 7.32
23-Nov-11 111.07 6 -0.19 2.7 3 7.23 7.21
13-Apr-11 124.01 6 0.07 0.44 -0.69 -0.11 1.25
06-Jul-10 95.60 6 3.15 4.17 4.95 5.02 6.6
24-Jun-10 99.83 6 0.42 0.1 -2.99 -3.91 -4.34
20-May-10 99.47 6 1.46 0.16 0.26 -0.34 3
09-Oct-08 81.00 6 -2.42 11.74 10.09 -0.75 3.38
08-Jan-08 122.12 8 1.06 1.72 0.89 1.71 -0.53
07-Jan-08 124.13 7 -1.62 -0.58 0.07 -0.74 0.06
04-Jan-08 124.23 6 -0.08 -1.7 -0.66 -0.01 -0.82
27-Jul-07 126.30 7 1.57 0.42 0.91 1.72 -0.9
26-Jul-07 128.83 6 -1.96 -0.43 -1.55 -1.07 -0.28
13-Oct-05 99.00 9 1.06 1.43 0.33 2 0.21
12-Oct-05 99.06 8 -0.06 1 1.37 0.27 1.94
11-Oct-05 99.85 7 -0.79 -0.85 0.2 0.57 -0.52
10-Oct-05 99.99 6 -0.14 -0.93 -0.99 0.06 0.43
26-Jan-05 97.64 6 0.16 0.16 0.79 1.43 1.74
27-Jan-03 68.51 8 0.74 1.5 -0.9 1.01 1.21
24-Jan-03 69.46 7 -1.37 -0.63 0.12 -2.26 -0.37
23-Jan-03 71.33 6 -2.62 -3.95 -3.24 -2.51 -4.82
23-Jul-02 63.69 6 5.97 5.06 7.07 12.28 13.74
24-Apr-02 86.85 6 0.06 -1.84 -2.33 -1.42 -0.21
28-Jul-00 110.47 6 0.64 1.27 1.77 2.47 3.02

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