$SPX breaks 5-day non losing streak after a long time
extending a similar article that we wrote earlier this year $DJIA breaks 3-day losing streaks after a long time, next what ?
with $SPX posting the first five day consecutive losing streak of the year ( after 185 trading days) , below the details of how $SPX fares over the next , 1-to-5 days after breaking the 5-day losing streak after 100 trading days (the rationale for 100 is , it is a big round number )
Here is how $SPX fares over the next 20 trading days assuming one goes long and exits after twenty trading days later , since 1950.
- Winners : 30
- Losers : 13
- % Winners : 70%
- Average Change % : 1.95
- Median Change % : 1.52
- Maximum Gain % : 11.55
- Maximum Loss % : -4.40
- Average Gain %if Winner : 3.58
- Average Loss % if Loser : -1.82
- Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.97
- Average Absolute Change% : 3.05
if you just look at the data from 1980 , here are the trading odds for $SPX for the next 20 trading days , after $SPX ends 5-day non-losing streak after more than 100 trading days.
- Winners : 20
- Losers : 3
- % Winners : 87%
- Average Change % : 2.96
- Median Change % : 1.84
- Maximum Gain % : 11.55 ( from 8 Jan 1991 to next twenty trading days )
- Maximum Loss % : -3.96 ( from 24 Feb 2004 to next 20 trading days)
- Average Gain %if Winner : 3.64
- Average Loss % if Loser : -1.61
- Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 2.26
- Average Absolute Change% : 3.38
comparing apples to apples, below the trading odds for the next twenty trading days , when $SPX falls for 5 or more days ( with out any filters) since 1950
- Winners : 239
- Losers : 177
- % Winners : 57%
- Average Change % : 0.80
- Median Change % : 0.93
- Maximum Gain % : 18.88
- Maximum Loss % : -21.40 ( from 12th Oct 1987 over next twenty trading days , if you don’t know already , or was not born by then 🙂 )
- Average Gain %if Winner : 4.48
- Average Loss % if Loser : -4.17
- Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.07
- Average Absolute Change% : 4.28
ps why no next day trading odds that we usually post , because the last two bounce plays 1) When $SPY closes on a 5 day low on Monday – currently 12 winning trades in row and 2) 3 bar decline pattern on $SPY – suggesting a bounce for tomorrow came out as losing bets !!!
below the table with how SPX index fared over the next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 5 trading days , after falling for 5 days in row , after not having done so for 100 trading days, since 1950.
you might want to consider subscribing to our daily quant email !!
check out Quant-Ideas ( starting from $ 34.95 per month) to aid the short term trader to find high probability winning trades