$TLT after ECB Rate Cut Decision is on Hold

$TLT after ECB Rate Cut Decision is on Hold 

rate cut

image courtesy : http://www.theguardian.com/business/cartoon/2010/sep/28/savings-spending-economy-cartoon

Below the trading odds for $TLT longs after ECB rate cut decision is on hold ( i.e no change from previous ECB rate cut decision meting ) ,

& if $TLT opens with a gap down ( at the time of writing $TLT is trading at pre-market , down by 0.65%)

assuming one goes long at open and exits at close, data since Jan 2009 .

  • Winners : 8
  • Losers : 20
  • % Winners : 29%
  • Average Change % : -0.28
  • Median Change % : -0.29
  • Maximum Gain % : 1.66
  • Maximum Loss % : -1.97
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 0.49
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -0.59
  • Payoff Ratio 0.84

variant , $TLT opens with a gap down open of more than 0.5% than the previous close, after ECB rate cut decision is on hold

  • Winners : 2
  • Losers : 11
  • % Winners : 15%
  • Average Change % : -0.52
  • Median Change % : -0.58
  • Maximum Gain % : 0.50
  • Maximum Loss % : -1.26
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 0.26
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -0.66
  • Payoff Ratio 0.39

not looking good for $TLT bulls …

below the historical details of $TLT change details from open , when ECB rate cut decision is on hold ( i.e no change from previous ECB rate decision meeting )

Date ECB Rate Actual Previous $TLT Open Close Gap % Change from open Change from open %
06-Mar-14 0.25 0.25 ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
06-Feb-14 0.25 0.25 106.71 106.44 -0.18 -0.27 -0.25
09-Jan-14 0.25 0.25 102.46 102.67 0.38 0.21 0.20
05-Dec-13 0.25 0.25 101.64 101.59 -0.24 -0.05 -0.05
02-Oct-13 0.5 0.5 104.47 104.50 0.12 0.03 0.03
05-Sep-13 0.5 0.5 101.77 100.86 -0.50 -0.91 -0.90
01-Aug-13 0.5 0.5 104.47 103.36 -0.87 -1.11 -1.06
04-Jul-13 0.5 0.5 US Markets Closed
06-Jun-13 0.5 0.5 112.16 112.49 -0.36 0.33 0.30
04-Apr-13 0.75 0.75 116.23 117.01 0.52 0.78 0.67
07-Mar-13 0.75 0.75 112.90 112.46 -0.38 -0.44 -0.39
07-Feb-13 0.75 0.75 113.01 112.91 -0.14 -0.10 -0.09
10-Jan-13 0.75 0.75 114.55 114.70 -0.41 0.15 0.13
06-Dec-12 0.75 0.75 121.26 121.00 0.43 -0.26 -0.21
08-Nov-12 0.75 0.75 119.04 121.01 -0.17 1.97 1.66
04-Oct-12 0.75 0.75 118.72 118.03 -0.67 -0.69 -0.58
06-Sep-12 0.75 0.75 120.45 119.57 -0.94 -0.88 -0.73
02-Aug-12 0.75 0.75 124.09 124.01 0.63 -0.08 -0.06
06-Jun-12 1 1 121.62 119.23 -0.03 -2.39 -1.97
03-May-12 1 1 110.99 111.54 -0.51 0.55 0.50
04-Apr-12 1 1 106.10 106.41 1.08 0.31 0.30
08-Mar-12 1 1 110.13 109.58 -0.50 -0.55 -0.50
09-Feb-12 1 1 109.44 109.09 -0.43 -0.35 -0.32
12-Jan-12 1 1 113.04 112.79 0.08 -0.25 -0.22
06-Oct-11 1.5 1.5 112.75 111.33 -0.59 -1.42 -1.26
08-Sep-11 1.5 1.5 104.68 104.88 0.71 0.20 0.19
04-Aug-11 1.5 1.5 95.15 97.92 0.62 2.77 2.91
09-Jun-11 1.25 1.25 89.64 88.99 0.32 -0.65 -0.72
05-May-11 1.25 1.25 87.31 87.83 0.35 0.52 0.60
03-Mar-11 1 1 82.57 82.14 -0.46 -0.43 -0.52
03-Feb-11 1 1 81.79 81.57 -0.56 -0.22 -0.27
13-Jan-11 1 1 83.01 83.74 0.02 0.73 0.88
02-Dec-10 1 1 86.64 86.35 0.08 -0.29 -0.33
04-Nov-10 1 1 89.22 89.69 0.25 0.47 0.52
07-Oct-10 1 1 94.32 93.88 -0.37 -0.44 -0.47
02-Sep-10 1 1 94.00 93.71 -0.75 -0.29 -0.30
05-Aug-10 1 1 88.51 88.22 0.79 -0.29 -0.32
08-Jul-10 1 1 88.64 88.61 -0.61 -0.03 -0.03
10-Jun-10 1 1 86.05 85.16 -0.76 -0.89 -1.04
06-May-10 1 1 83.08 85.40 0.29 2.32 2.79
08-Apr-10 1 1 78.16 78.05 0.17 -0.11 -0.13
04-Mar-10 1 1 79.68 80.13 -0.03 0.45 0.56
04-Feb-10 1 1 79.45 80.14 0.70 0.69 0.87
14-Jan-10 1 1 78.05 78.77 0.47 0.72 0.93
03-Dec-09 1 1 81.88 81.80 -0.95 -0.08 -0.10
05-Nov-09 1 1 80.27 80.59 -0.40 0.32 0.40
08-Oct-09 1 1 85.90 84.56 0.53 -1.34 -1.56
03-Sep-09 1 1 83.17 83.19 -0.63 0.02 0.02
06-Aug-09 1 1 77.82 78.12 -0.04 0.30 0.39
02-Jul-09 1 1 80.49 80.46 0.27 -0.03 -0.03
04-Jun-09 1 1 77.77 77.00 -1.09 -0.77 -0.98
05-Feb-09 2 2 86.77 86.24 0.71 -0.53 -0.61

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