When $SPX breaks 5-day non losing streak after a long time

$SPX breaks 5-day non losing streak after a long time

extending a similar article that we wrote earlier this year $DJIA breaks 3-day losing streaks after a long time, next what ?

with $SPX posting the first five day consecutive losing streak of the year ( after 185 trading days) , below the details of how $SPX fares over the next , 1-to-5 days after breaking the 5-day losing streak after 100 trading days (the rationale for 100 is , it is a big round number )

Here is how $SPX fares over the next 20  trading days assuming one goes long and exits after twenty trading days later , since 1950.

  • Winners : 30
  • Losers : 13
  • % Winners : 70%
  • Average Change % : 1.95
  • Median Change % : 1.52
  • Maximum Gain % : 11.55
  • Maximum Loss % : -4.40
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 3.58
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -1.82
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.97
  • Average Absolute Change% : 3.05

if you just look at the data from 1980 , here are the trading odds for $SPX for the next 20 trading days , after $SPX ends 5-day non-losing streak after more than 100 trading days. 

  • Winners : 20
  • Losers : 3
  • % Winners : 87%
  • Average Change % : 2.96
  • Median Change % : 1.84
  • Maximum Gain % : 11.55 ( from 8 Jan 1991 to next twenty trading days )
  • Maximum Loss % : -3.96 ( from 24 Feb  2004 to next 20 trading days) 
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 3.64
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -1.61
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 2.26
  • Average Absolute Change% : 3.38

comparing apples to apples, below the trading odds for the next twenty trading days , when $SPX falls for 5 or more days ( with out any filters) since 1950

  • Winners : 239
  • Losers : 177
  • % Winners : 57%
  • Average Change % : 0.80
  • Median Change % : 0.93
  • Maximum Gain % : 18.88
  • Maximum Loss % : -21.40 ( from 12th Oct 1987 over next twenty trading days , if you don’t know already , or was not born by then 🙂 )
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 4.48
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -4.17
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.07
  • Average Absolute Change% : 4.28

ps why no next day trading odds that we usually post , because the last two bounce plays 1) When $SPY closes on a 5 day low on Monday – currently 12 winning trades in row  and 2) 3 bar decline pattern on $SPY – suggesting a bounce for tomorrow came out as losing bets !!!

below the table with how SPX index fared over the next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 5 trading days , after falling for 5 days in row , after not having done so for 100 trading days, since 1950.

When $SPX ends 5-day non-losing streak after 100 days , since1950

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