momentum investing case for Indian Markets

momentum investing case for Indian Markets

with the new Government in place in India , below the case for momentum investing in India

momentum investing in india

image courtesy : http://www.american.com/archive/2009/november/investing-in-india-art-of-the-impossible

here are Nifty Index ( the favored benchmark for Indian markets ) returns from May end till Dec End , since 1994 

data source : http://nseindia.com/products/content/equities/indices/historical_index_data.htm

  • Winners : 11
  • Losers : 8
  • % Winners : 58%
  • Average Change % : 11.29
  • Median Change % : 6.29
  • Maximum Gain % : 86.71
  • Maximum Loss % : -39.24
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 30.19
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -14.69
  • Payoff Ratio 2.05

now with the Indian market returning positive returns at the End of May , indeed the largest India focused India ETF ,  by volume and asset size ,  $EPI (WisdomTree India Earnings Fund) had returned 27% YTD) ,

below the Nifty Index Returns , from May End till Dec End ,  since 1994 , when the Year-To-Date Returns were positive by May end

  • Winners : 8
  • Losers : 2
  • % Winners : 80%
  • Average Change % : 16.56
  • Median Change % : 18.41
  • Maximum Gain % : 42.90
  • Maximum Loss % : -17.51
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 22.94
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -8.96
  • Payoff Ratio 2.56

#FYI all the last 8 instances fared positive by Dec end , when by the May end YTD returns were positive , since 1997 ..

caveats :

  • we are using Index, which is not adjusted for dividends , usually about 1-1.5%
  • currency movements may affect the actual results

Below the Nifty Index returns from May end till Dec End , since 1994

Year Nifty Start of the Year End of the Year YTD % EOY %
2014 ~ 7263.55 6304 ?? 15.22 ??
2013 5985.95 5905.1 6304 1.37 5.31
2012 4924.25 4624.3 5905.1 6.49 19.92
2011 5560.15 6134.5 4624.3 -9.36 -16.83
2010 5086.3 5201.05 6134.5 -2.21 20.61
2009 4448.95 2959.15 5201.05 50.35 16.91
2008 4870.1 6138.6 2959.15 -20.66 -39.24
2007 4295.8 3966.4 6138.6 8.30 42.90
2006 3071.05 2836.55 3966.4 8.27 29.15
2005 2087.55 2080.5 2836.55 0.34 35.88
2004 1483.6 1879.75 2080.5 -21.07 40.23
2003 1006.8 1093.5 1879.75 -7.93 86.71
2002 1028.8 1059.05 1093.5 -2.86 6.29
2001 1167.9 1263.55 1059.05 -7.57 -9.32
2000 1380.45 1480.45 1263.55 -6.75 -8.47
1999 1132.3 884.25 1480.45 28.05 30.75
1998 1063.15 1079.4 884.25 -1.51 -16.83
1997 1050.9 899.1 1079.4 16.88 2.71
1996 1089.92 908.53 899.1 19.97 -17.51
1995 997.4 1182.28 908.53 -15.64 -8.91
1994 1187.19 1083.74 1182.28 9.55 -0.41

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Watch list for 8 Jan 2014 – $AMBA, $BBRY, $COST, $CREE, $EPI, $KORS, $PBR-A, $SPN

Watch list for 8 Jan 2014

Stock Watchlist

 

image courtesy : Wikimedia 

below the high probability short term trades triggered at close , with the following criteria

  • #trades >=20 in last four years
  • %wins >= 75%
  • Avg profit per trade % >= 1.00
  • Price >5
  • Average Volume & Current Volume > 1 mil
Ticker Trading Strategy Entry @ Close Exit After Bias # Trades % Wins Avg % Avg Win % Avg Loss % Payoff Details
AMBA Open -5% 08-Jan-14 1 Day Close Long 22 82 2.33 3.39 -2.44 1.39 more
BBRY Money Flow Index (MFI)is above 80 08-Jan-14 5 Day Close Short 25 84 3.19 6.72 15.36 0.44 more
COST ADX above 40 with negative trend 08-Jan-14 4 Day Close Long 31 84 1.46 1.87 -0.71 2.63 more
CREE RSI above 80 08-Jan-14 5 Day Close Long 23 83 1.79 2.68 -2.43 1.1 more
EPI Price moved above SMA-50 08-Jan-14 4 Day Close Long 23 74 0.99 2.55 -3.43 0.74 more
KORS New 20 trading day low 08-Jan-14 3 Day Close Long 20 85 3.13 3.95 -1.51 2.62 more
PBR-A 5 Day Consecutive Down 08-Jan-14 5 Day Close Long 26 81 3.23 4.41 -1.7 2.59 more
SPN 3 consecutive closes below previous low 08-Jan-14 4 Day Close Long 24 83 3.33 4.53 -2.68 1.69 more

would you like to add any of favorite $TICKER to your watch-list to get trade alerts with more than 70% win rate ??  click here 

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