it seems we had 19 new all time closing high’s thus far in the year – which is bullish for the rest of the year

it seems we had 19 all time closing high’s thus far in the year

cini

hey , it’s birthday of mine , instead of buying me a drink , you might want to donate to one of the causes that I support – > Child- Malnutrition 

h/t @RyanDetrick

$SPX with 19 new all time closing highs in ’14. Just passed 18 from ’92. $SPYhttp://stks.co/g0hff

— Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick) Jun. 10 at 07:25 PM

as on 10th June 2014 , we completed 110 trading days , so below the study considering number of new all time  closing high’s ( we had 19 new ATH in this year , thus far)  as on 110th trading day , data since 1950 on $SPX .

rest of year returns : returns from 110th trading day’s close to the end of year close in percentage

1)  $SPX rest of year returns , when there is not a single reading of ATH , since 1950 

Winners : 20
Losers : 11
% Winners : 65%
Average Change % : 3.15
Median Change % : 6.04
Maximum Gain % : 29.04
Maximum Loss % : -33.67
Average Gain %if Winner : 11.13
Average Loss % if Loser : -11.35
Payoff Ratio 0.98

2)  $SPX rest of year returns , when there is at-least one reading of ATH , since 1950 

Winners : 27
Losers : 6
% Winners : 82%
Average Change % : 5.43
Median Change % : 6.07
Maximum Gain % : 27.82
Maximum Loss % : -16.89
Average Gain %if Winner : 8.59
Average Loss % if Loser : -8.77
Payoff Ratio 0.98
Average Absolute Change% : 11.10

3)  $SPX rest of year returns , when there were 10 or more readings of ATH , since 1950 

Winners : 20
Losers : 1
% Winners : 95%
Average Change % : 8.73
Median Change % : 9.93
Maximum Gain % : 27.82
Maximum Loss % : -16.89
Average Gain %if Winner : 10.02
Average Loss % if Loser : -16.89
Payoff Ratio 0.59

we normally don’t do year end targets , and leave to the analysts , but if average 8.73% rest of year returns are realized in this year , that would take $SPX to 2120.51 !!

below the table with the rest of year returns , when $SPX had 10 or more ATH readings , since 1950

Date $SPX YTD % EOY ROY % # ATH’s
10-Jun-14 1950.79 5.25 ?? ?? 19
10-Jun-13 1642.81 13.19 1848.36 12.51 17
10-Jun-99 1302.82 5.65 1469.25 12.77 19
10-Jun-98 1112.28 12.75 1229.23 10.51 32
09-Jun-97 862.91 14.16 970.43 12.46 22
06-Jun-96 673.03 8.48 740.74 10.06 16
08-Jun-95 532.35 13.73 615.93 15.70 38
07-Jun-91 379.43 12.97 417.09 9.93 11
09-Jun-87 297.28 18.54 247.08 -16.89 27
09-Jun-86 239.96 11.95 242.17 0.92 22
07-Jun-85 189.68 11.83 211.28 11.39 22
08-Jun-83 161.36 12.84 164.93 2.21 25
07-Jun-72 107.65 5.16 118.05 9.66 11
10-Jun-68 101.41 4.87 103.86 2.42 11
09-Jun-65 85.04 0.34 92.43 8.69 25
08-Jun-64 78.64 4.6 84.75 7.77 39
09-Jun-61 66.66 12.83 71.55 7.34 23
08-Jun-59 56.76 2.73 59.89 5.51 19
08-Jun-55 39.22 8.26 45.48 15.96 18
09-Jun-54 28.15 11.87 35.98 27.82 29
08-Jun-51 21.49 4.93 23.77 10.61 19
09-Jun-50 19.26 13.5 20.43 6.07 40

 

appealing once more -> instead of buying me a drink , you might want to donate to one of the causes that I support – > Child- Malnutrition