# $SPY and Doji’s

With $SPY posting a Doji candle stick pattern on 7 Oct 2013 , below few studies ,

firstly Doji definition,

**Doji:** On a candlestick chart, a Doji is defined as the one , when the open price and close price are the same, or the difference between the open and the close is very small. “Very small” is a relative term, so we have taken the range for the day as the reference. For example, if the range for the day is 1 point and if the absolute difference between open and close is 0.01 points, we have called it as a 1% Doji ,

with 7 Oct 2013, $SPY OHLC values being , 167.42, 168.45 , 167.25 , 167.43 , the range being , 1.2 points and the absolute difference between open and close , being 0.01 points , we can qualify that as a 1% Doji .

below the few combinations of trading studies

**$SPY posts a Doji **

below the trading odds for longs , with various exit periods ( t+1, being the exit after 1 trading days , and t+20 being the exit after 20 trading days etc.) , the backtest period is from Jan 2000.

Exit |
# |
Wins |
% Wins |
Avg% |
Med% |
Avg Win % |
Avg Loss % |
Pay Off |

t+1 |
40 |
18 |
45.0 |
-0.28 |
-0.12 |
1.10 |
-1.40 |
0.78 |

t+2 | 40 | 20 | 50.0 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 1.27 | -2.01 | 0.63 |

t+3 | 40 | 22 | 55.0 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 1.65 | -1.49 | 1.11 |

t+4 | 40 | 22 | 55.0 | -0.14 | 0.22 | 1.45 | -2.08 | 0.70 |

t+5 | 40 | 23 | 57.5 | -0.47 | 0.26 | 1.26 | -2.81 | 0.45 |

t+10 | 40 | 23 | 57.5 | -0.34 | 0.52 | 1.84 | -3.29 | 0.56 |

t+20 | 40 | 24 | 60.0 | 0.65 | 1.60 | 3.15 | -3.11 | 1.01 |

**$SPY posts a Doji & $SPY Closed down for the day **

Exit |
# |
Wins |
% Wins |
Avg% |
Med% |
Avg Win % |
Avg Loss % |
Pay Off |

t+1 |
21 |
6 |
28.6 |
-0.84 |
-0.38 |
0.97 |
-1.56 |
0.62 |

t+2 | 21 | 9 | 42.9 | -0.75 | -0.19 | 1.08 | -2.13 | 0.51 |

t+3 | 21 | 12 | 57.1 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 1.83 | -1.41 | 1.30 |

t+4 | 21 | 12 | 57.1 | -0.04 | 0.16 | 1.37 | -1.93 | 0.71 |

t+5 | 21 | 11 | 52.4 | -0.77 | 0.45 | 1.29 | -3.03 | 0.43 |

t+10 | 21 | 12 | 57.1 | -0.50 | 0.61 | 2.13 | -4.00 | 0.53 |

t+20 | 21 | 12 | 57.1 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 3.52 | -3.23 | 1.09 |

**$SPY posts a Doji & $SPY Closed above 200 DMA **

Exit |
# |
Wins |
% Wins |
Avg% |
Med% |
Avg Win % |
Avg Loss % |
Pay Off |

t+1 | 27 | 14 | 51.9 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.84 | -0.83 | 1.02 |

t+2 | 27 | 15 | 55.6 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 1.09 | -1.05 | 1.05 |

t+3 | 27 | 15 | 55.6 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 1.14 | -1.16 | 0.99 |

t+4 | 27 | 16 | 59.3 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 1.07 | -1.35 | 0.79 |

t+5 | 27 | 17 | 63.0 | 0.11 | 0.28 | 1.01 | -1.42 | 0.71 |

t+10 | 27 | 17 | 63.0 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 1.91 | -1.75 | 1.09 |

t+20 |
27 |
18 |
66.7 |
1.23 |
1.79 |
2.83 |
-1.96 |
1.45 |

**$SPY posts a Doji & $SPY Closed below 50 DMA **

Exit |
# |
Wins |
% Wins |
Avg% |
Med% |
Avg Win % |
Avg Loss % |
Pay Off |

t+1 |
12 |
5 |
41.7 |
-1.01 |
-0.48 |
1.25 |
-2.62 |
0.48 |

t+2 |
12 |
6 |
50.0 |
-1.04 |
-0.19 |
1.55 |
-3.62 |
0.43 |

t+3 | 12 | 8 | 66.7 | 0.78 | 1.16 | 2.15 | -1.95 | 1.10 |

t+4 | 12 | 6 | 50.0 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 2.20 | -2.53 | 0.87 |

t+5 | 12 | 5 | 41.7 | -1.29 | -1.12 | 2.24 | -3.81 | 0.59 |

t+10 | 12 | 6 | 50.0 | -1.44 | -0.41 | 2.05 | -4.92 | 0.42 |

t+20 | 12 | 6 | 50.0 | -0.01 | -0.51 | 3.65 | -3.68 | 0.99 |

**$SPY posts a Doji & $SPY Closed below 20 DMA **

Exit |
# |
Wins |
% Wins |
Avg% |
Med% |
Avg Win % |
Avg Loss % |
Pay Off |

t+1 |
12 |
5 |
41.7 |
-1.06 |
-0.47 |
1.25 |
-2.70 |
0.46 |

t+2 | 12 | 7 | 58.3 | -0.68 | 0.84 | 1.60 | -3.87 | 0.41 |

t+3 | 12 | 7 | 58.3 | 0.82 | 1.60 | 2.63 | -1.72 | 1.53 |

t+4 |
12 |
5 |
41.7 |
-0.61 |
-0.62 |
2.41 |
-2.76 |
0.87 |

t+5 |
12 |
5 |
41.7 |
-1.40 |
-1.12 |
2.25 |
-4.00 |
0.56 |

t+10 | 12 | 6 | 50.0 | -1.67 | -0.22 | 2.43 | -5.77 | 0.42 |

t+20 | 12 | 6 | 50.0 | -0.56 | -0.51 | 3.30 | -4.41 | 0.75 |

looking at few of the red highlighted , in the above studies , looks like downward bias might continue for the next 1 or 2 trading days .

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