$SPX closes at 50 day low after longggg time – what next

$SPX closes at 50 day low after longgg time 

$SPX closes at 50-Day low Stock Chart

h/t to Rob Hana @QuantEdges ( must #FF and his blog Quantifiable Edges  is a must bookmark )

Below the trading odds for $SPX ( S&P 500 Index) , for the next  next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 trading days ,

1 ) when the wait period between 50-Day low closings is more than 100 trading days for $SPX  , data since 1980.

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 27 17 63.0 0.42 0.37 1.13 -0.79 1.44 -1.88
t+2 27 16 59.3 0.39 0.46 1.49 -1.20 1.24 -4.85
t+3 27 16 59.3 0.55 0.44 2.06 -1.64 1.26 -4.74
t+4 27 17 63.0 0.55 0.71 2.10 -2.07 1.01 -5.62
t+5 27 16 59.3 0.75 0.66 2.48 -1.77 1.41 -3.28
t+10 27 18 66.7 1.09 0.56 2.37 -1.47 1.61 -5.43
t+20 27 22 81.5 2.23 2.09 3.48 -3.29 1.06 -9.32
Swing High 27 19 70.4 0.14 0.43 1.06 -2.05 0.52 -3.28

Swing High, column , is made with the assumption that, one goes long at close and exits at first higher close than current close in the next five trading days , or exit at the end of the fifth trading day with loss

2 ) when the wait period between 50-Day low closings for $SPX is more than 200 trading days 

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 11 8 72.7 0.63 0.55 1.11 -0.64 1.73 -0.98
t+2 11 8 72.7 0.56 0.48 1.11 -0.90 1.24 -1.33
t+3 11 9 81.8 1.07 0.62 1.51 -0.95 1.59 -1.16
t+4 11 9 81.8 1.33 1.18 1.88 -1.11 1.68 -1.98
t+5 11 9 81.8 1.16 1.40 1.84 -1.88 0.98 -1.98
t+10 11 9 81.8 1.14 0.68 1.72 -1.46 1.18 -2.36
t+20 11 9 81.8 1.90 2.09 2.87 -2.47 1.16 -3.72
Swing High 11 10 90.9 0.73 0.55 0.98 -1.79 0.55 -1.79

below the prior instances of 50-day low closings with wait periods between 50 day low closings more than 100 trading days , since 1980, highlighted in the red are where $SPX failed to close higher in the next five trading days ..

Date SPX Close  days since 50 day low close t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
29-Jan-14 1774.2 300
07-Nov-12 1394.53 108 -1.22 -1.05 -1.04 -1.43 -2.80
14-May-12 1338.35 153 -0.57 -1.01 -2.50 -3.22 -1.67
16-Mar-11 1256.88 176 1.34 1.78 3.30 2.94 3.23
28-Jan-10 1084.53 224 -0.98 0.43 1.73 1.18 -1.98
27-Feb-07 1399.04 176 0.56 0.30 -0.85 -1.78 -0.26
17-May-06 1270.32 147 -0.67 -0.26 -0.65 -1.08 -0.92
05-Oct-05 1196.39 116 -0.41 -0.04 -0.76 -0.96 -1.56
24-Jan-05 1163.75 112 0.40 0.89 0.93 0.65 1.51
11-Mar-04 1106.78 252 1.25 -0.21 0.35 1.53 1.40
06-Oct-00 1408.99 155 -0.49 -1.56 -3.15 -5.62 -2.47
10-Aug-99 1281.43 236 1.60 1.31 3.61 3.85 4.90
03-Jun-98 1082.73 149 1.12 2.88 3.05 3.30 2.73
27-Oct-97 876.99 137 5.12 4.81 3.04 4.29 7.07
31-Mar-97 757.12 171 0.33 -0.93 -0.90 0.10 0.66
11-Apr-96 631.18 337 0.88 1.79 2.19 1.65 1.97
06-Oct-94 452.36 128 0.61 1.48 2.97 2.90 3.41
03-Mar-94 463.01 352 0.37 0.84 0.62 0.87 0.19
02-Oct-92 410.47 122 -0.71 -0.80 -1.52 -0.66 -1.90
22-Nov-91 376.14 282 -0.21 0.48 0.11 -0.24 1.40
02-Aug-90 351.48 127 -1.88 -4.85 -4.74 -3.74 -3.28
13-Oct-89 333.65 228 2.76 2.25 2.43 4.04 4.05
11-May-88 253.31 108 0.21 1.37 2.13 0.82 -0.77
20-May-87 278.21 161 0.70 1.42 3.92 3.78 4.51
12-Sep-86 230.67 242 0.55 0.46 0.44 0.71 0.67
11-Sep-85 185.03 286 -0.72 -1.15 -1.16 -1.98 -1.79
04-Aug-83 161.33 247 0.25 -1.33 -0.74 0.13 0.13
02-Feb-81 126.91 213 1.22 1.32 2.14 2.91 1.86

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