Prior Much Awaited All Time High Closings

Prior Much Awaited All Time High Closings

Finally! Nasdaq tops its March 2000 record

 

with Nasdaq ( IXIC) closing at an All Time High after 3801 trading days , below $STUDY

there were 13 much awaited ( defined as , i.e 1000 ++ trade days of waiting between prior ATH and the current ATH ) ATH closes ( on DJIA , SPX , IXIC & RUT from the DB that i operate) goes back to 1900 on DJIA , 1950 on SPX , 1979 on IXIC and only till 1987 on RUT

1) only ATH ( All Time High) closings were considered and not the Intra-day-high’s
2) # days between prior ATH , is the distance in trading days between the current and prior ATH closing
3) below the long awaited ATH of the four indices .. and the forward one year returns
Date DJIA # days between prior ATH t-252 % t+252 %
05-Mar-13 14253.77 1358 9.81 14.78
03-Oct-06 11727.34 1699 11.31 19.94
03-Nov-82 1065.49 2478 22.92 15.37
10-Nov-72 995.26 1676 22.43 -10.47
23-Nov-54 382.74 7308 38.97 25.91
31-Dec-24 120.51 1545 23.61 29.16
28-Sep-16 103.11 3098 6.62 -9.93
24-Mar-05 79.27 1122 67.06 29.30
avg% for any 252 days 6.61
Date SPX
28-Mar-13 1569.19 1375 10.78 18.38
30-May-07 1530.23 1802 19.53 -8.62
17-Jul-80 121.44 1897 19.52 7.67
avg% for any 252 days 8.86
Date IXIC
23-Apr-15 5056.06 3801 22.51 ??
07-Sep-78 137.09 1424 35.36 7.13
avg% for any 252 days 12.02
Date RUT
05-Apr-04 606.39 1021 62.45 1.62
avg% for any 252 days 10.08
below the trading odds for buying the First All Time High Closing after 1000 or more trading days and holding for an year
Winners : 10
Losers : 3
% Winners : 77%
Average Change % : 10.79
Median Change % : 14.78
Maximum Gain % : 29.30
Maximum Loss % : -10.47
Average Gain %if Winner : 16.93
Average Loss % if Loser : -9.67
Payoff Ratio 1.75
do note that it’s tiny sample of 13 from an aprox of 65K++ !!
ps: difficult to operate an excel with one hand only ( as the other hand bruised badly in freakish biking incident while on a holiday) , prior experience from others in such situations would be of help 🙂

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