it looks like 1967

it looks like 1967

inspired by an earlier article “2013 Shaping Up Like 1995” by  Jon Markman at Forbes , and the excellent new pattern matching service  pattern positive  and not to forget Eric’s greatest chart analogue portal  Market Anthropology 

We did the following steps to arrive at how does 2013 compares with the other years since 1950

1) 23rd Aug 2013 being the 163rd trading of the year , we took daily percentage changes of $SPX up to 163rd trading day of each year

2) Calculate the correlation coefficient between the S&P 500′s daily percentage changes of 2013 and to that of every other year since 1950.

below the results in table with Correlation Co-efficient for each year with year 2013 , YTD returns, and the rest of the year returns. ( for your editing purposes we are giving the plain table rather than a color coded excel table transported into a .png file)

Year Correl With 2013 $SPX at 163rd  day Year Start Year End YTD Returns % Rest of the Year Returns %
2013 1.00 1663.5 1426.19  ?? 16.64 ??
2012 -0.11 1402.08 1257.6 1426.19 11.49 1.72
2011 0.13 1177.6 1257.64 1257.6 -6.36 6.79
2010 0.13 1055.33 1115.1 1257.64 -5.36 19.17
2009 0.09 1028 903.25 1115.1 13.81 8.47
2008 -0.12 1292.2 1468.36 903.25 -12 -30.1
2007 -0.01 1479.37 1418.3 1468.36 4.31 -0.74
2006 -0.13 1296.06 1248.29 1418.3 3.83 9.43
2005 0.02 1209.59 1211.92 1248.29 -0.19 3.2
2004 0.03 1104.96 1111.92 1211.92 -0.63 9.68
2003 -0.09 993.71 879.82 1111.92 12.94 11.9
2002 -0.05 940.86 1148.08 879.82 -18.05 -6.49
2001 -0.05 1162.09 1320.28 1148.08 -11.98 -1.21
2000 0.04 1505.97 1469.25 1320.28 2.5 -12.33
1999 0.03 1381.79 1229.23 1469.25 12.41 6.33
1998 -0.13 1092.85 970.43 1229.23 12.62 12.48
1997 0.03 923.54 740.74 970.43 24.68 5.08
1996 0.05 665.07 615.93 740.74 7.98 11.38
1995 -0.07 557.14 459.27 615.93 21.31 10.55
1994 0.02 469.03 466.45 459.27 0.55 -2.08
1993 -0.05 459.77 435.71 466.45 5.52 1.45
1992 -0.04 414.85 417.09 435.71 -0.54 5.03
1991 -0.10 391.33 330.22 417.09 18.51 6.58
1990 0.13 316.55 353.4 330.22 -10.43 4.32
1989 0.03 344.7 277.72 353.4 24.12 2.52
1988 -0.03 257.09 247.08 277.72 4.05 8.02
1987 -0.03 333.33 242.17 247.08 37.64 -25.88
1986 -0.06 250.19 211.28 242.17 18.42 -3.21
1985 0.07 187.36 167.24 211.28 12.03 12.77
1984 -0.08 167.06 164.93 167.24 1.29 0.11
1983 -0.09 162.77 140.64 164.93 15.74 1.33
1982 -0.02 115.35 122.55 140.64 -5.88 21.92
1981 -0.02 125.5 135.76 122.55 -7.56 -2.35
1980 -0.01 125.46 107.94 135.76 16.23 8.21
1979 0.11 108.99 96.11 107.94 13.4 -0.96
1978 -0.09 104.91 95.1 96.11 10.32 -8.39
1977 -0.01 97.23 107.46 95.1 -9.52 -2.19
1976 -0.06 101.96 90.19 107.46 13.05 5.39
1975 0.06 84.28 68.56 90.19 22.93 7.01
1974 -0.04 72.8 97.55 68.56 -25.37 -5.82
1973 0.00 101.91 118.05 97.55 -13.67 -4.28
1972 -0.11 112.41 102.09 118.05 10.11 5.02
1971 -0.04 100.4 92.15 102.09 8.95 1.68
1970 -0.07 79.24 92.06 92.15 -13.93 16.29
1969 0.04 94.49 103.86 92.06 -9.02 -2.57
1968 -0.10 100.52 96.47 103.86 4.2 3.32
1967 0.13 93.61 80.33 96.47 16.53 3.06
1966 -0.11 78.11 92.43 80.33 -15.49 2.84
1965 -0.09 86.71 84.75 92.43 2.31 6.6
1964 0.11 82.07 75.02 84.75 9.4 3.27
1963 -0.13 71.54 63.1 75.02 13.38 4.86
1962 0.04 59.78 71.55 63.1 -16.45 5.55
1961 -0.07 67.59 58.11 71.55 16.31 5.86
1960 0.00 57.75 59.89 58.11 -3.57 0.62
1959 -0.11 59.08 55.21 59.89 7.01 1.37
1958 0.00 47.63 39.99 55.21 19.1 15.91
1957 0.15 45.16 46.67 39.99 -3.24 -11.45
1956 -0.09 47.42 45.48 46.67 4.27 -1.58
1955 0.04 42.55 35.98 45.48 18.26 6.89
1954 -0.05 30.87 24.81 35.98 24.43 16.55
1953 0.04 24.35 26.57 24.81 -8.36 1.89
1952 0.09 24.99 23.77 26.57 5.13 6.32
1951 0.02 22.9 20.43 23.77 12.09 3.8
1950 -0.14 18.79 16.66 20.43 12.79 8.73

Below the top 10 resembling years with 2013 as per correlation of daily percentage changes up to 163 trading day .

Year Correl YTD Returns
2013 1 16.64
1957 0.147 -3.24
2010 0.133 -5.36
1990 0.131 -10.43
2011 0.129 -6.36
1967 0.126 16.53
1979 0.106 13.4
1964 0.106 9.4
2009 0.085 13.81
1952 0.085 5.13
1985 0.065 12.03

as the years 1957, 2010,1990,2011, don’t match ( within +/- 2% range) to that 2013 YTD returns , we assumed the closest match to the 2013 year is 1967 and then 1979 to certain extent.

Below chart with a comparison of 2013 ( YTD Returns) to that of 1967

$SPX 2013 vs 1967 YTD Returns Chart
$SPX 2013 vs 1967 YTD Returns Chart


blue – 2013 , red – 1967

# FYI Year 1967 went on to return 3.06% for the rest of the year , from the 163rd trading close to year ending close ..

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