inspired by Wayne Whaley’s, A Red Ryder Christmas Study , another $SPX trading day barometer

another $SPX trading day barometer

January Barometer

h/t @SJD10304

and another similar article here http://www.naaim.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/00J_A-Red-Ryder-Christmas-Wayne_Whaley-1.pdf

basically trying to figure out various other January Barometer  studies , here is our study, inspired by Wayne Whaley

step 1) we are taking each trading day of the year and marking up to 250 , leaving aside an trading day greater than 250 ( pitfall is year 2001 had only 248 trading days , so for the trading studies of 249/250 we only have 32 samples, since 1980)

step 2) we are taking the forward 250 trading day’s returns ( i.e approximately one year forward returns )

step 3) torturing the excel sheets , to find the averages , averageif/s etc ..

1) $SPX forward one year returns , when investing on any trading day and holding for next 250 trading days , (backtest period is from since 1980 , till 20 Nov 2012 )

ps: Rank is the sorted order of highest returns . 1 being the best , and 250 being the worst .

pps: between a nice a colorful table as a picture , I’ve chosen a plain table , for others to edit and come up with their own conclusions ( hope fully you will appreciate that !!)

# Day Count # Wins %wins 1 yr returns Rank
1 33 24 72.7 9.29 194
2 33 23 69.7 9.04 222
3 33 24 72.7 9.17 212
4 33 24 72.7 9.28 195
5 33 25 75.8 9.87 81
6 33 24 72.7 9.94 67
7 33 24 72.7 10.06 43
8 33 23 69.7 9.72 98
9 33 23 69.7 9.31 191
10 33 24 72.7 9.24 203
11 33 23 69.7 8.79 231
12 33 24 72.7 9.14 217
13 33 24 72.7 9.98 61
14 33 24 72.7 10.13 35
15 33 24 72.7 9.91 75
16 33 25 75.8 9.57 136
17 33 25 75.8 9.33 188
18 33 25 75.8 9.15 214
19 33 25 75.8 9.1 221
20 33 25 75.8 9.04 222
21 33 25 75.8 8.64 237
22 33 25 75.8 8.88 230
23 33 25 75.8 9.35 186
24 33 25 75.8 9.48 159
25 33 26 78.8 9.17 212
26 33 26 78.8 9.13 218
27 33 26 78.8 9.67 110
28 33 26 78.8 9.44 168
29 33 26 78.8 9.49 156
30 33 26 78.8 9.31 191
31 33 26 78.8 9.23 204
32 33 26 78.8 9.22 205
33 33 26 78.8 9.43 169
34 33 26 78.8 9.99 57
35 33 26 78.8 10.44 8
36 33 26 78.8 10.16 30
37 33 26 78.8 9.58 132
38 33 26 78.8 9.76 94
39 33 26 78.8 9.57 136
40 33 26 78.8 9.99 57
41 33 26 78.8 10.14 33
42 33 26 78.8 10.01 53
43 33 26 78.8 9.98 61
44 33 26 78.8 9.92 70
45 33 26 78.8 10.59 4
46 33 26 78.8 10.33 16
47 33 26 78.8 10.34 14
48 33 26 78.8 10.32 19
49 33 26 78.8 10.02 51
50 33 26 78.8 10.17 28
51 33 26 78.8 10.13 35
52 33 27 81.8 9.49 156
53 33 26 78.8 9.57 136
54 33 27 81.8 10.17 28
55 33 27 81.8 9.89 79
56 33 27 81.8 10.27 21
57 33 27 81.8 10.04 45
58 33 26 78.8 10.04 45
59 33 26 78.8 10.36 12
60 33 26 78.8 10.65 3
61 33 26 78.8 11.05 1
62 33 26 78.8 10.79 2
63 33 26 78.8 10 55
64 33 27 81.8 10.04 45
65 33 27 81.8 10.16 30
66 33 26 78.8 10.4 10
67 33 25 75.8 10.34 14
68 33 26 78.8 10.46 7
69 33 25 75.8 10.05 44
70 33 25 75.8 10.24 24
71 33 24 72.7 10.32 19
72 33 25 75.8 10.23 25
73 33 24 72.7 9.92 70
74 33 24 72.7 9.43 169
75 33 25 75.8 9.33 188
76 33 25 75.8 10.03 49
77 33 24 72.7 10.18 27
78 33 25 75.8 10.12 37
79 33 25 75.8 10.14 33
80 33 25 75.8 9.9 76
81 33 25 75.8 9.95 65
82 33 25 75.8 10 55
83 33 25 75.8 9.66 112
84 33 25 75.8 9.38 180
85 33 25 75.8 9.64 118
86 33 25 75.8 9.87 81
87 33 25 75.8 10.04 45
88 33 25 75.8 9.6 126
89 33 25 75.8 9.92 70
90 33 25 75.8 9.94 67
91 33 24 72.7 10.1 41
92 33 25 75.8 10.16 30
93 33 25 75.8 9.98 61
94 33 25 75.8 9.85 86
95 33 24 72.7 10.33 16
96 33 23 69.7 10.48 6
97 33 23 69.7 10.25 23
98 33 24 72.7 10.12 37
99 33 24 72.7 10.03 49
100 33 24 72.7 9.54 148
101 33 23 69.7 9.37 183
102 33 24 72.7 9.5 153
103 33 24 72.7 9.69 105
104 33 25 75.8 9.42 173
105 33 25 75.8 9.65 114
106 33 25 75.8 9.55 143
107 33 24 72.7 9.55 143
108 33 24 72.7 9.46 163
109 33 25 75.8 9.67 110
110 33 25 75.8 9.83 91
111 33 25 75.8 10.02 51
112 33 25 75.8 9.68 108
113 33 25 75.8 9.49 156
114 33 25 75.8 9.22 205
115 33 25 75.8 9.4 177
116 33 25 75.8 9.65 114
117 33 25 75.8 9.87 81
118 33 26 78.8 9.95 65
119 33 26 78.8 9.92 70
120 33 26 78.8 9.7 101
121 33 26 78.8 9.71 100
122 33 26 78.8 9.73 96
123 33 24 72.7 9.82 92
124 33 24 72.7 9.45 166
125 33 25 75.8 9.58 132
126 33 24 72.7 9.74 95
127 33 26 78.8 9.64 118
128 33 26 78.8 9.65 114
129 33 26 78.8 9.7 101
130 33 25 75.8 9.84 89
131 33 25 75.8 9.85 86
132 33 25 75.8 9.72 98
133 33 26 78.8 9.61 122
134 33 25 75.8 9.52 151
135 33 25 75.8 9.7 101
136 33 26 78.8 9.46 163
137 33 26 78.8 9.41 174
138 33 26 78.8 9.96 64
139 33 26 78.8 10.21 26
140 33 26 78.8 10.26 22
141 33 26 78.8 10.35 13
142 33 26 78.8 10.37 11
143 33 26 78.8 9.85 86
144 33 26 78.8 9.89 79
145 33 26 78.8 9.73 96
146 33 26 78.8 9.47 161
147 33 26 78.8 9.28 195
148 33 26 78.8 9.86 84
149 33 26 78.8 9.99 57
150 33 26 78.8 10.12 37
151 33 26 78.8 10.1 41
152 33 25 75.8 10.11 40
153 33 26 78.8 9.9 76
154 33 26 78.8 9.92 70
155 33 26 78.8 9.86 84
156 33 25 75.8 9.43 169
157 33 26 78.8 9.55 143
158 33 26 78.8 9.38 180
159 33 26 78.8 9.7 101
160 33 26 78.8 9.99 57
161 33 25 75.8 9.37 183
162 33 25 75.8 8.97 226
163 33 26 78.8 9.13 218
164 33 26 78.8 9.39 179
165 33 26 78.8 9.68 108
166 33 26 78.8 9.28 195
167 33 26 78.8 9.84 89
168 33 26 78.8 9.52 151
169 33 26 78.8 9.61 122
170 33 26 78.8 9.56 142
171 33 25 75.8 9.53 150
172 33 24 72.7 9.25 201
173 33 25 75.8 9.5 153
174 33 25 75.8 9.8 93
175 33 25 75.8 9.65 114
176 33 26 78.8 9.57 136
177 33 25 75.8 9.41 174
178 33 25 75.8 9.18 211
179 33 26 78.8 9.15 214
180 33 25 75.8 9.46 163
181 33 26 78.8 9.59 131
182 33 25 75.8 9.45 166
183 33 26 78.8 9.94 67
184 33 25 75.8 9.63 120
185 33 24 72.7 9.54 148
186 33 23 69.7 9.61 122
187 33 24 72.7 9.69 105
188 33 25 75.8 9.9 76
189 33 25 75.8 9.55 143
190 33 26 78.8 9.57 136
191 33 25 75.8 9.43 169
192 33 24 72.7 9.34 187
193 33 24 72.7 9.6 126
194 33 24 72.7 9.69 105
195 33 23 69.7 9.47 161
196 33 24 72.7 9.6 126
197 33 24 72.7 10.01 53
198 33 25 75.8 9.55 143
199 33 25 75.8 9.33 188
200 33 25 75.8 9.19 209
201 33 25 75.8 9.48 159
202 33 27 81.8 10.33 16
203 33 27 81.8 9.57 136
204 33 27 81.8 9.15 214
205 33 26 78.8 8.95 227
206 33 27 81.8 9.66 112
207 33 28 84.8 10.56 5
208 33 27 81.8 10.41 9
209 33 27 81.8 9.4 177
210 33 26 78.8 9.25 201
211 33 26 78.8 9.03 224
212 33 27 81.8 8.43 244
213 33 25 75.8 8.24 248
214 33 28 84.8 8.48 241
215 33 28 84.8 9.13 218
216 33 28 84.8 9.41 174
217 33 28 84.8 9.58 132
218 33 27 81.8 9.6 126
219 33 28 84.8 9.28 195
220 33 27 81.8 9.58 132
221 33 26 78.8 9.21 207
222 33 25 75.8 9.36 185
223 33 27 81.8 9.61 122
224 32 25 78.1 8.98 225
225 32 26 81.3 9.5 153
226 32 25 78.1 9.28 195
227 32 23 71.9 8.76 233
228 32 22 68.8 8.2 250
229 32 22 68.8 8.48 241
230 32 22 68.8 8.39 245
231 32 22 68.8 8.24 248
232 32 22 68.8 8.71 235
233 32 23 71.9 8.55 239
234 32 23 71.9 8.47 243
235 32 23 71.9 8.7 236
236 32 23 71.9 8.78 232
237 32 23 71.9 8.93 229
238 32 23 71.9 9.19 209
239 32 22 68.8 8.72 234
240 32 23 71.9 9.38 180
241 32 23 71.9 9.3 193
242 32 22 68.8 9.2 208
243 32 23 71.9 8.94 228
244 32 23 71.9 9.26 200
245 32 22 68.8 8.61 238
246 32 23 71.9 8.35 246
247 32 23 71.9 8.29 247
248 32 24 75 8.49 240
249 31 24 77.4 9.6 126
250 31 25 80.6 9.63 120

The best day to maximize your one year forward returns , since 1980 , has been the 61 st trading day ( for the year 2013 , it was 1st April 2013 , when the $SPX closed at 1562.17 , and the worst day to time the market has been 228th trading day ( for 2013 , it is coming on 25 Nov 2013)

2) $SPX forward one year returns , if the current day returns are positive , since 1980 

# Day Count # Wins %wins 1 yr returns Rank
1 15 10 66.7 7.48 191
2 21 15 71.4 9.2 130
3 19 13 68.4 7.32 196
4 17 13 76.5 10.3 91
5 16 13 81.3 11.57 61
6 18 12 66.7 7.55 189
7 17 12 70.6 7.19 199
8 19 15 78.9 13.77 22
9 19 14 73.7 9.23 127
10 24 18 75 9.36 123
11 21 16 76.2 12.32 42
12 14 8 57.1 5.78 230
13 11 9 81.8 16.65 3
14 15 11 73.3 10.12 94
15 18 13 72.2 8.02 178
16 21 17 81 8.44 158
17 15 14 93.3 15.66 9
18 17 13 76.5 11.65 60
19 20 15 75 9.71 110
20 17 12 70.6 7.94 180
21 24 19 79.2 9.06 136
22 20 16 80 10.51 83
23 15 12 80 12.11 47
24 19 15 78.9 9.07 135
25 18 15 83.3 12.22 44
26 18 15 83.3 9.14 134
27 14 13 92.9 16.47 4
28 21 18 85.7 9.32 124
29 17 13 76.5 7.46 193
30 20 16 80 7.99 179
31 20 17 85 12.73 36
32 17 13 76.5 7.69 188
33 15 12 80 11.54 63
34 14 11 78.6 2.39 249
35 11 10 90.9 15.14 14
36 12 8 66.7 7.43 194
37 19 15 78.9 8.38 161
38 18 14 77.8 6.4 214
39 21 17 81 8.13 172
40 16 13 81.3 11.57 61
41 15 11 73.3 5.75 231
42 21 17 81 7.04 202
43 17 12 70.6 7.79 186
44 18 14 77.8 9.03 138
45 14 11 78.6 9.46 117
46 16 11 68.8 12.49 38
47 22 18 81.8 12.4 40
48 10 9 90 16.17 6
49 22 18 81.8 13.22 31
50 14 12 85.7 11.03 69
51 18 14 77.8 11.06 67
52 22 19 86.4 11.89 53
53 22 15 68.2 6.06 223
54 14 12 85.7 15.31 11
55 17 12 70.6 6.39 216
56 16 11 68.8 6.67 209
57 17 13 76.5 8.58 152
58 19 15 78.9 8.31 166
59 12 9 75 12.64 37
60 17 15 88.2 12.05 49
61 11 9 81.8 6.03 224
62 17 12 70.6 12.03 50
63 23 19 82.6 11.88 54
64 19 14 73.7 8.6 150
65 18 15 83.3 10.04 98
66 16 11 68.8 8.49 155
67 16 13 81.3 14.25 17
68 19 14 73.7 10.85 74
69 20 15 75 10.4 85
70 16 13 81.3 9.62 112
71 16 13 81.3 16.09 7
72 20 16 80 12.26 43
73 25 18 72 9.42 119
74 20 14 70 5.09 237
75 15 9 60 3.25 243
76 15 13 86.7 13.55 28
77 15 13 86.7 16.89 2
78 15 12 80 13.08 33
79 18 14 77.8 8.11 173
80 21 16 76.2 7.83 184
81 19 16 84.2 13.63 26
82 15 11 73.3 9.73 109
83 23 17 73.9 10.11 96
84 18 15 83.3 10.67 80
85 19 15 78.9 10.09 97
86 18 14 77.8 13.1 32
87 11 6 54.5 2.63 248
88 15 11 73.3 11.01 70
89 12 11 91.7 10.4 85
90 21 19 90.5 15.18 13
91 18 12 66.7 6 226
92 15 11 73.3 10.98 71
93 22 15 68.2 6.48 212
94 16 11 68.8 7.92 181
95 16 9 56.3 2.82 246
96 17 12 70.6 8.24 168
97 15 13 86.7 15.23 12
98 14 11 78.6 12.44 39
99 18 14 77.8 8.32 164
100 23 16 69.6 8.41 159
101 21 15 71.4 9.05 137
102 18 14 77.8 8.34 162
103 13 9 69.2 5.22 236
104 22 18 81.8 9.45 118
105 23 19 82.6 11.95 51
106 16 10 62.5 4.92 238
107 17 12 70.6 7.48 191
108 15 12 80 13.96 19
109 18 13 72.2 8.82 144
110 14 10 71.4 6.61 210
111 13 10 76.9 13.51 29
112 23 17 73.9 9.38 121
113 20 15 75 6.2 220
114 19 13 68.4 5.4 235
115 22 17 77.3 8.08 175
116 18 13 72.2 6.02 225
117 13 10 76.9 10.84 75
118 15 10 66.7 3.06 244
119 18 14 77.8 11.49 64
120 16 13 81.3 11.82 56
121 10 10 100 17.45 1
122 16 11 68.8 6.39 216
123 15 13 86.7 13.64 25
124 16 13 81.3 9.2 130
125 15 12 80 9.52 115
126 21 15 71.4 8.77 146
127 20 16 80 11.09 66
128 16 14 87.5 8.99 140
129 18 13 72.2 6.14 222
130 20 14 70 7.12 200
131 14 12 85.7 13.39 30
132 23 16 69.6 8.9 142
133 19 15 78.9 7.29 198
134 21 16 76.2 9.23 127
135 19 16 84.2 11.8 58
136 20 15 75 10.95 72
137 18 14 77.8 6.82 207
138 14 11 78.6 9.19 132
139 14 11 78.6 9.71 110
140 15 14 93.3 13.72 23
141 13 10 76.9 9.79 102
142 18 13 72.2 3.96 242
143 18 13 72.2 6.51 211
144 14 11 78.6 10.31 90
145 18 15 83.3 10.5 84
146 22 16 72.7 4.47 241
147 18 13 72.2 8.16 170
148 14 12 85.7 10.2 92
149 15 11 73.3 10.7 79
150 14 9 64.3 7.87 183
151 19 13 68.4 2.98 245
152 16 14 87.5 12.37 41
153 15 11 73.3 6.9 206
154 19 14 73.7 4.49 240
155 12 10 83.3 10.57 82
156 20 16 80 10.12 94
157 20 17 85 12.06 48
158 24 19 79.2 10.76 78
159 15 14 93.3 11.95 51
160 19 14 73.7 10.32 89
161 21 15 71.4 8.77 146
162 19 14 73.7 8.6 150
163 18 14 77.8 7.3 197
164 18 14 77.8 6.95 204
165 16 15 93.8 14.8 15
166 16 12 75 9 139
167 19 17 89.5 13.72 23
168 19 16 84.2 13.03 34
169 15 10 66.7 1.35 250
170 17 14 82.4 9.37 122
171 16 14 87.5 13.63 26
172 14 12 85.7 13.87 21
173 17 14 82.4 10.86 73
174 19 15 78.9 8.47 157
175 17 13 76.5 9.26 126
176 21 16 76.2 9.15 133
177 20 15 75 9.76 106
178 20 19 95 16.33 5
179 14 10 71.4 5.81 229
180 16 10 62.5 5.98 227
181 16 12 75 8.41 159
182 15 12 80 11.06 67
183 13 10 76.9 9.74 108
184 14 9 64.3 7.5 190
185 13 12 92.3 15.77 8
186 21 12 57.1 5.48 234
187 17 13 76.5 10.63 81
188 14 11 78.6 9.21 129
189 20 16 80 10.8 77
190 18 15 83.3 12.14 46
191 18 13 72.2 8.83 143
192 18 11 61.1 2.68 247
193 15 10 66.7 8.26 167
194 16 11 68.8 8.54 153
195 19 14 73.7 15.33 10
196 14 9 64.3 12.19 45
197 12 10 83.3 9.3 125
198 17 15 88.2 13.99 18
199 23 18 78.3 10.34 88
200 21 16 76.2 8.05 176
201 16 14 87.5 13.9 20
202 15 13 86.7 11.32 65
203 22 18 81.8 7.73 187
204 21 15 71.4 6.36 218
205 11 10 90.9 12.97 35
206 13 10 76.9 6.71 208
207 16 15 93.8 11.81 57
208 17 13 76.5 6.45 213
209 22 19 86.4 9.89 101
210 21 14 66.7 5.93 228
211 21 16 76.2 7.9 182
212 21 18 85.7 8.61 149
213 23 17 73.9 9.76 106
214 18 15 83.3 7.41 195
215 20 18 90 11.88 54
216 12 10 83.3 9.48 116
217 16 13 81.3 10.39 87
218 16 13 81.3 8.49 155
219 22 19 86.4 8.54 153
220 15 12 80 8.18 169
221 15 12 80 9.58 114
222 22 16 72.7 9.39 120
223 17 13 76.5 9.6 113
224 17 12 70.6 8.09 174
225 12 12 100 14.68 16
226 20 15 75 6.25 219
227 20 14 70 9.77 105
228 20 14 70 8.14 171
229 21 14 66.7 8.68 148
230 22 17 77.3 9.78 104
231 21 13 61.9 4.64 239
232 11 7 63.6 8.32 164
233 19 13 68.4 10.01 99
234 16 12 75 8.92 141
235 15 11 73.3 6.91 205
236 15 13 86.7 11.7 59
237 15 12 80 8.82 144
238 16 12 75 8.34 162
239 20 15 75 9.79 102
240 16 11 68.8 5.71 233
241 15 11 73.3 10.2 92
242 15 11 73.3 10.82 76
243 16 9 56.3 6.4 214
244 14 10 71.4 8.03 177
245 19 14 73.7 7.82 185
246 22 15 68.2 7.1 201
247 22 15 68.2 6.17 221
248 16 11 68.8 7.02 203
249 20 15 75 9.9 100
250 20 14 70 5.75 231

for the year 2013 , the 121st trading day was 25 June 2013 , and $SPX closed up by 0.94% on that day at 1588.03 ( good news) , if 17.45% past average gains are realized , $SPX might be at ~ 1865 by 25 Jun 2014 

for the year 2013 , the 169th trading day was 3rd Sep 2013 , and $SPX closed up by 0.42% and closed at 1639.77 ( bad news ), for the ammo of bears , $SPX might close at ~1662 on 3rd Sep 2014 

below the prior instances of 12st trading day being up and the forward one year returns , since 1980 .

121st trading day  SPX Close Gain % one year Returns 
25-Jun-13 1588.03 0.95 ??
25-Jun-10 1076.76 0.29 19.54
25-Jun-09 920.26 2.14 18.67
26-Jun-06 1250.56 0.49 19.77
24-Jun-97 896.34 2.02 23.08
21-Jun-96 666.84 0.72 33.32
24-Jun-93 446.62 0.77 1.06
23-Jun-92 404.04 0.16 9.81
23-Jun-89 328 1.76 9.48
24-Jun-86 247.03 0.72 24.26
23-Jun-80 114.51 0.39 15.51

3) $SPX forward one year returns , if the current day returns are negative, since 1980 

# Day Count # Wins %wins 1 yr returns Rank
1 18 14 77.8 10.8 90
2 11 8 72.7 13.04 38
3 14 11 78.6 11.67 66
4 16 11 68.8 8.2 174
5 17 12 70.6 8.27 173
6 15 12 80 12.8 42
7 15 11 73.3 12.52 48
8 14 8 57.1 4.21 242
9 14 9 64.3 9.42 142
10 9 6 66.7 8.93 157
11 12 7 58.3 2.62 247
12 19 16 84.2 11.62 69
13 22 15 68.2 6.64 208
14 18 13 72.2 10.14 112
15 15 11 73.3 12.18 56
16 12 8 66.7 11.56 75
17 18 11 61.1 4.06 243
18 16 12 75 6.5 210
19 12 9 75 6.74 206
20 16 13 81.3 10.22 110
21 9 6 66.7 7.52 193
22 13 9 69.2 6.38 215
23 18 13 72.2 7.05 201
24 13 9 69.2 9.41 143
25 15 11 73.3 5.52 227
26 15 11 73.3 9.13 151
27 19 13 68.4 4.65 238
28 12 8 66.7 9.66 127
29 16 13 81.3 11.65 68
30 13 10 76.9 11.34 79
31 13 9 69.2 3.85 244
32 16 13 81.3 10.84 88
33 18 14 77.8 7.68 190
34 19 15 78.9 15.59 14
35 22 16 72.7 8.09 178
36 21 18 85.7 11.72 65
37 14 11 78.6 11.22 81
38 15 12 80 13.79 31
39 12 9 75 12.09 58
40 17 13 76.5 8.51 165
41 18 15 83.3 13.81 30
42 12 9 75 15.2 15
43 16 14 87.5 12.31 53
44 15 12 80 10.98 86
45 18 14 77.8 11.89 62
46 17 15 88.2 8.3 172
47 11 8 72.7 6.2 218
48 23 17 73.9 7.78 185
49 11 8 72.7 3.63 245
50 19 14 73.7 9.53 135
51 15 12 80 9.01 156
52 11 8 72.7 4.68 237
53 11 11 100 16.6 10
54 19 15 78.9 6.39 213
55 16 15 93.8 13.62 34
56 17 16 94.1 13.66 33
57 16 14 87.5 11.59 72
58 14 11 78.6 12.39 51
59 21 17 81 9.06 152
60 16 11 68.8 9.17 150
61 21 16 76.2 12.68 45
62 16 14 87.5 9.47 140
63 10 7 70 5.7 223
64 14 13 92.9 12 61
65 15 12 80 10.3 106
66 17 15 88.2 12.2 55
67 17 12 70.6 6.66 207
68 14 12 85.7 9.92 120
69 13 10 76.9 9.51 137
70 17 12 70.6 10.83 89
71 17 11 64.7 4.89 232
72 13 9 69.2 7.11 198
73 8 6 75 11.48 76
74 13 10 76.9 16.11 12
75 18 16 88.9 14.39 22
76 18 12 66.7 7.09 199
77 18 11 61.1 4.59 239
78 18 13 72.2 7.65 191
79 15 11 73.3 12.58 47
80 12 9 75 13.53 35
81 14 9 64.3 4.96 231
82 18 14 77.8 10.23 109
83 10 8 80 8.63 164
84 15 10 66.7 7.84 183
85 14 10 71.4 9.02 154
86 15 11 73.3 5.99 220
87 22 19 86.4 13.75 32
88 18 14 77.8 8.43 167
89 21 14 66.7 9.65 128
90 12 6 50 0.77 249
91 15 12 80 15.02 18
92 18 14 77.8 9.48 139
93 11 10 90.9 16.96 7
94 17 14 82.4 11.67 66
95 17 15 88.2 17.39 4
96 16 11 68.8 12.85 41
97 18 10 55.6 6.09 219
98 19 13 68.4 8.4 168
99 15 10 66.7 12.08 59
100 10 8 80 12.14 57
101 12 8 66.7 9.92 120
102 15 10 66.7 10.9 87
103 20 15 75 12.6 46
104 11 7 63.6 9.36 146
105 10 6 60 4.38 241
106 17 15 88.2 13.91 28
107 16 12 75 11.75 64
108 18 12 66.7 5.72 221
109 15 12 80 10.68 96
110 19 15 78.9 12.21 54
111 20 15 75 7.76 187
112 10 8 80 10.36 104
113 13 10 76.9 14.54 20
114 14 12 85.7 14.4 21
115 11 8 72.7 12.04 60
116 15 12 80 14 26
117 20 15 75 9.24 149
118 18 16 88.9 15.69 13
119 15 12 80 8.03 180
120 17 13 76.5 7.71 188
121 23 16 69.6 6.35 216
122 17 15 88.2 12.88 40
123 18 11 61.1 6.63 209
124 17 11 64.7 9.69 126
125 18 13 72.2 9.62 130
126 12 9 75 11.45 78
127 13 10 76.9 7.41 194
128 17 12 70.6 10.27 108
129 15 13 86.7 13.98 27
130 13 11 84.6 14.03 24
131 19 13 68.4 7.24 196
132 10 9 90 11.61 70
133 14 11 78.6 12.76 43
134 12 9 75 10.03 117
135 14 9 64.3 6.85 205
136 13 11 84.6 7.16 197
137 15 12 80 12.52 48
138 19 15 78.9 10.53 100
139 19 15 78.9 10.58 99
140 18 12 66.7 7.37 195
141 20 16 80 10.71 94
142 15 13 86.7 18.05 3
143 15 13 86.7 13.86 29
144 19 15 78.9 9.57 133
145 15 11 73.3 8.79 162
146 11 10 90.9 19.48 2
147 15 13 86.7 10.61 98
148 19 14 73.7 9.62 130
149 18 15 83.3 9.4 144
150 19 17 89.5 11.77 63
151 14 13 92.9 19.76 1
152 17 11 64.7 7.97 182
153 18 15 83.3 12.41 50
154 14 12 85.7 17.29 6
155 20 15 75 9.88 122
156 13 9 69.2 8.37 170
157 13 9 69.2 5.69 224
158 9 7 77.8 5.71 222
159 18 12 66.7 7.82 184
160 14 12 85.7 9.53 135
161 12 10 83.3 10.44 101
162 14 11 78.6 9.47 140
163 15 12 80 11.32 80
164 15 12 80 12.32 52
165 17 11 64.7 4.86 234
166 17 14 82.4 9.55 134
167 14 9 64.3 4.58 240
168 14 10 71.4 4.76 236
169 18 16 88.9 16.5 11
170 16 12 75 9.76 124
171 17 11 64.7 5.68 225
172 18 11 61.1 5.56 226
173 16 11 68.8 8.06 179
174 14 10 71.4 11.59 72
175 16 12 75 10.07 114
176 12 10 83.3 10.32 105
177 13 10 76.9 8.89 160
178 13 6 46.2 -1.82 250
179 19 16 84.2 11.6 71
180 17 15 88.2 12.74 44
181 17 14 82.4 10.71 94
182 18 13 72.2 8.12 175
183 20 16 80 10.07 114
184 19 16 84.2 11.2 82
185 20 12 60 5.49 228
186 12 11 91.7 16.85 8
187 16 11 68.8 8.68 163
188 19 14 73.7 10.41 102
189 13 9 69.2 7.62 192
190 15 11 73.3 6.5 210
191 15 12 80 10.14 112
192 15 13 86.7 17.33 5
193 18 14 77.8 10.72 93
194 16 12 75 9.65 128
195 14 9 64.3 1.51 248
196 19 15 78.9 7.7 189
197 21 14 66.7 10.41 102
198 16 10 62.5 4.83 235
199 10 7 70 7.02 202
200 12 9 75 11.2 82
201 17 11 64.7 5.31 230
202 18 14 77.8 9.51 137
203 11 9 81.8 13.24 36
204 12 12 100 14.03 24
205 22 16 72.7 6.94 203
206 20 17 85 11.58 74
207 17 13 76.5 9.37 145
208 16 14 87.5 14.61 19
209 11 8 72.7 8.4 168
210 12 12 100 15.06 17
211 12 10 83.3 11.01 85
212 12 9 75 8.12 175
213 9 7 77.8 3.04 246
214 15 13 86.7 9.76 124
215 13 10 76.9 4.89 232
216 21 18 85.7 9.36 146
217 17 15 88.2 8.81 161
218 17 14 82.4 10.65 97
219 11 9 81.8 10.75 91
220 18 15 83.3 10.75 91
221 18 14 77.8 8.91 158
222 11 9 81.8 9.3 148
223 16 14 87.5 9.61 132
224 15 13 86.7 9.98 118
225 20 14 70 6.39 213
226 12 10 83.3 14.34 23
227 12 9 75 7.09 199
228 12 8 66.7 8.32 171
229 11 8 72.7 8.1 177
230 10 5 50 5.33 229
231 11 9 81.8 15.11 16
232 21 15 71.4 8.91 158
233 13 10 76.9 6.43 212
234 16 11 68.8 8.02 181
235 17 12 70.6 10.29 107
236 17 10 58.8 6.22 217
237 17 11 64.7 9.02 154
238 16 11 68.8 10.04 116
239 12 7 58.3 6.93 204
240 16 12 75 13.06 37
241 17 12 70.6 8.51 165
242 17 11 64.7 7.77 186
243 16 14 87.5 11.47 77
244 18 13 72.2 10.21 111
245 13 8 61.5 9.77 123
246 10 8 80 11.11 84
247 10 8 80 12.95 39
248 16 13 81.3 9.95 119
249 11 9 81.8 9.06 152
250 11 11 100 16.69 9

for the year 2013 , the 151st trading day was 7 Aug 2013 , and $SPX closed down by -0.38% on that day at 1690.91 ( good news) , if 19.76% past average gains are realized , $SPX might be at ~ 2024 by 7 Aug 2014.

another good news is , the 178th trading day in year 2013 was at 16 Sep 2013 , and it did not close lower ( good news )

Below the prior instances of 151st trading day being down in the year , and the forward one year returns , since 1980

151st trading day  SPX Close Loss one year Returns
07-Aug-13 1690.91 -0.38 ??
08-Aug-11 1119.46 -6.66 24.26
08-Aug-06 1271.48 -0.34 16.14
08-Aug-05 1223.13 -0.27 4.60
09-Aug-99 1297.8 -0.19 11.92
07-Aug-98 1089.45 -0.02 20.58
05-Aug-96 660.23 -0.34 44.54
05-Aug-92 422.19 -0.51 6.62
06-Aug-90 334.43 -3.02 15.76
05-Aug-88 271.15 -0.29 26.99
06-Aug-86 236.84 -0.08 34.09
06-Aug-85 187.93 -1.41 25.57
06-Aug-82 103.71 -1.38 56.21
06-Aug-81 132.64 -0.02 -18.70
05-Aug-80 120.74 -0.20 8.07

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