get ready for $SPY 2% or more falls in clusters ??

$SPY 2% or more falls in clusters

$SPX 2% drops in each year since 1950

with $SPX and $SPY falling by more than 2% ( after 149 trading day’s , i’e the last 2% drop was on 20th Jun 2013) , below a look at the wait times between 2% drops

the row named “0” denotes there were back to back 2% or more drops , row named “1” denotes there was a drop day before yesterday ( trading days terms , not the calendar terms ) and during the current trading as well , and so on …

below the distribution of wait periods in trading days, between 2% drops , on $SPX , since 1950 ..

Trading Days since 2% drop # instances
0 33
1 28
2 25
3 26
4 20
5 17
6 14
7 12
8 7
9 9
10 8
11-100 104
>100 40

197 out of 343 ( 58%)  2% drops occurred with in a space 10 trading days since 1950

below the distribution of wait periods in trading days, between 2% drops , on $SPX , since 1980 ..

Trading Days since 2% drop # instances
0 28
1 27
2 19
3 23
4 16
5 16
6 10
7 11
8 6
9 9
10 8
11-100 85
>100 18

173 out of 276 ( 62.7% )  2% drops occurred with in a space 10 trading days , since 1980 

below the distribution of wait periods in trading days, between 2% drops , on $SPY , since 1994 ..

Trading Days since 2% drop # instances
0 28
1 28
2 19
3 21
4 10
5 13
6 6
7 7
8 6
9 12
10 4
11-100 72
>100 11

154 out of 223 ( 64.98% ) 2% drops occurred with in a space 10 trading days , on $SPY , since Feb 1993

below the distribution of wait periods in trading days, between 2% drops , on $SPY , since Y2K.

$SPY 2% drops in each year since 2000

Trading Days since 2% drop # instances
0 26
1 22
2 18
3 19
4 8
5 11
6 6
7 7
8 4
9 11
10 4
11-100 51
>100 6

136 out of 193 (70.46% ) 2% drops occurred with in a space 10 trading days , on $SPY , since Jan 2000 

well the point is the 2% or more drops seems to appear in clusters !!!

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