Front Running All Time High Closings on $SPY
Mind you other than Chuck Norris , no one knows in advance in advance , whether $SPY is going to close at All Time High , on closing basis or not , but thought will let you know not get too excited about it ..
below the $SPY returns when $SPY closes at All Time High , since Y2K
- Total Instances : 201
- Average Change % : 0.48
- Median Change % : 0.40
- Maximum Gain % : 2.56
$SPY returns when $SPY closes up , but not at all time high , since Y2K
- Total Instances : 1887
- Average Change % : 0.85
- Median Change % : 0.58
- Maximum Gain % : 14.51
point is $SPY returns are much higher , on other non-all-time-high closing up days than All-Time-High closing days .
what about the odds for an 1% ++ up day on $SPY ??
$SPY closed with 1% ++ gains , 19 / 201 ( 9.5%) times , when it closed at ATH
$SPY closed with 1% ++ gains , 557/1887 ( 29.5%) times , when it closed higher but not at ATH .
conclusion – don’t get too excited, about the humongous returns , if your bet is $SPY is going to close at ATH either today or on any other other day ..
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