$TLT after ECB Rate Cut Decision is on Hold

$TLT after ECB Rate Cut Decision is on Hold 

rate cut

image courtesy : http://www.theguardian.com/business/cartoon/2010/sep/28/savings-spending-economy-cartoon

Below the trading odds for $TLT longs after ECB rate cut decision is on hold ( i.e no change from previous ECB rate cut decision meting ) ,

& if $TLT opens with a gap down ( at the time of writing $TLT is trading at pre-market , down by 0.65%)

assuming one goes long at open and exits at close, data since Jan 2009 .

  • Winners : 8
  • Losers : 20
  • % Winners : 29%
  • Average Change % : -0.28
  • Median Change % : -0.29
  • Maximum Gain % : 1.66
  • Maximum Loss % : -1.97
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 0.49
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -0.59
  • Payoff Ratio 0.84

variant , $TLT opens with a gap down open of more than 0.5% than the previous close, after ECB rate cut decision is on hold

  • Winners : 2
  • Losers : 11
  • % Winners : 15%
  • Average Change % : -0.52
  • Median Change % : -0.58
  • Maximum Gain % : 0.50
  • Maximum Loss % : -1.26
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 0.26
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -0.66
  • Payoff Ratio 0.39

not looking good for $TLT bulls …

below the historical details of $TLT change details from open , when ECB rate cut decision is on hold ( i.e no change from previous ECB rate decision meeting )

Date ECB Rate Actual Previous $TLT Open Close Gap % Change from open Change from open %
06-Mar-14 0.25 0.25 ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
06-Feb-14 0.25 0.25 106.71 106.44 -0.18 -0.27 -0.25
09-Jan-14 0.25 0.25 102.46 102.67 0.38 0.21 0.20
05-Dec-13 0.25 0.25 101.64 101.59 -0.24 -0.05 -0.05
02-Oct-13 0.5 0.5 104.47 104.50 0.12 0.03 0.03
05-Sep-13 0.5 0.5 101.77 100.86 -0.50 -0.91 -0.90
01-Aug-13 0.5 0.5 104.47 103.36 -0.87 -1.11 -1.06
04-Jul-13 0.5 0.5 US Markets Closed
06-Jun-13 0.5 0.5 112.16 112.49 -0.36 0.33 0.30
04-Apr-13 0.75 0.75 116.23 117.01 0.52 0.78 0.67
07-Mar-13 0.75 0.75 112.90 112.46 -0.38 -0.44 -0.39
07-Feb-13 0.75 0.75 113.01 112.91 -0.14 -0.10 -0.09
10-Jan-13 0.75 0.75 114.55 114.70 -0.41 0.15 0.13
06-Dec-12 0.75 0.75 121.26 121.00 0.43 -0.26 -0.21
08-Nov-12 0.75 0.75 119.04 121.01 -0.17 1.97 1.66
04-Oct-12 0.75 0.75 118.72 118.03 -0.67 -0.69 -0.58
06-Sep-12 0.75 0.75 120.45 119.57 -0.94 -0.88 -0.73
02-Aug-12 0.75 0.75 124.09 124.01 0.63 -0.08 -0.06
06-Jun-12 1 1 121.62 119.23 -0.03 -2.39 -1.97
03-May-12 1 1 110.99 111.54 -0.51 0.55 0.50
04-Apr-12 1 1 106.10 106.41 1.08 0.31 0.30
08-Mar-12 1 1 110.13 109.58 -0.50 -0.55 -0.50
09-Feb-12 1 1 109.44 109.09 -0.43 -0.35 -0.32
12-Jan-12 1 1 113.04 112.79 0.08 -0.25 -0.22
06-Oct-11 1.5 1.5 112.75 111.33 -0.59 -1.42 -1.26
08-Sep-11 1.5 1.5 104.68 104.88 0.71 0.20 0.19
04-Aug-11 1.5 1.5 95.15 97.92 0.62 2.77 2.91
09-Jun-11 1.25 1.25 89.64 88.99 0.32 -0.65 -0.72
05-May-11 1.25 1.25 87.31 87.83 0.35 0.52 0.60
03-Mar-11 1 1 82.57 82.14 -0.46 -0.43 -0.52
03-Feb-11 1 1 81.79 81.57 -0.56 -0.22 -0.27
13-Jan-11 1 1 83.01 83.74 0.02 0.73 0.88
02-Dec-10 1 1 86.64 86.35 0.08 -0.29 -0.33
04-Nov-10 1 1 89.22 89.69 0.25 0.47 0.52
07-Oct-10 1 1 94.32 93.88 -0.37 -0.44 -0.47
02-Sep-10 1 1 94.00 93.71 -0.75 -0.29 -0.30
05-Aug-10 1 1 88.51 88.22 0.79 -0.29 -0.32
08-Jul-10 1 1 88.64 88.61 -0.61 -0.03 -0.03
10-Jun-10 1 1 86.05 85.16 -0.76 -0.89 -1.04
06-May-10 1 1 83.08 85.40 0.29 2.32 2.79
08-Apr-10 1 1 78.16 78.05 0.17 -0.11 -0.13
04-Mar-10 1 1 79.68 80.13 -0.03 0.45 0.56
04-Feb-10 1 1 79.45 80.14 0.70 0.69 0.87
14-Jan-10 1 1 78.05 78.77 0.47 0.72 0.93
03-Dec-09 1 1 81.88 81.80 -0.95 -0.08 -0.10
05-Nov-09 1 1 80.27 80.59 -0.40 0.32 0.40
08-Oct-09 1 1 85.90 84.56 0.53 -1.34 -1.56
03-Sep-09 1 1 83.17 83.19 -0.63 0.02 0.02
06-Aug-09 1 1 77.82 78.12 -0.04 0.30 0.39
02-Jul-09 1 1 80.49 80.46 0.27 -0.03 -0.03
04-Jun-09 1 1 77.77 77.00 -1.09 -0.77 -0.98
05-Feb-09 2 2 86.77 86.24 0.71 -0.53 -0.61

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$SPY Best Gap Up Opening in 50 days on a Tuesday, Bullish or Bearish

$SPY Best Gap Up Opening in 50 days on Tuesday since 1994

yet another reason, to be bullish and to go with that best gap  up opening on $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) on in 50 days on Tuesdays

here are the trading system rules we employed

  • $SPY opens with a largest gap up opening during the 50 trading days ( including today’s gap open)
  • Today is Tuesday ( this pattern existed , before the current streak of 20 DJIA positive Tuesdays )
  • go long at Open &
  • exit at current session’s close

below the backtest performance summary of  “$SPY Best Gap Up Opening in 50 days on a Tuesday Trading System” since 1994.

$SPY Best Gap Up Opening in 50 days on Tuesday Trading System, backtest since 1994

below the historical trades generated by “$SPY Best Gap Up Opening in 50 days on a Tuesday , Trading System”  since 1994 , for your reference

Date Open Close Gap Size Close  – Open Close – Open %
28-May-13 167.04 ?? 1.05 ?? ??
16-Apr-13 156.29 157.41 0.75 1.12 0.72
09-Aug-11 109.84 113.12 1.62 3.28 2.99
11-Mar-08 116.72 118.4 2.12 1.68 1.44
13-Nov-07 129.12 131.53 1.16 2.41 1.86
31-Jul-07 131.13 128.82 0.64 -2.31 -1.76
06-Mar-07 121.67 122.48 1.04 0.81 0.66
15-Aug-06 111.33 111.66 0.9 0.33 0.3
23-May-06 109.92 108.18 0.83 -1.74 -1.58
02-May-06 113.23 113.55 0.47 0.32 0.28
03-Jan-06 107.77 109.07 0.55 1.3 1.21
15-Oct-02 70.7 72.09 2.79 1.39 1.97
16-Apr-02 90.06 91.27 1.02 1.21 1.34
25-Apr-00 113.95 116.73 1.68 2.78 2.44
08-Sep-98 77.94 79.59 3.2 1.65 2.11
25-Aug-98 85.28 84.61 1.02 -0.67 -0.79
28-Apr-98 84.56 83.62 0.97 -0.94 -1.11
29-Apr-97 59.68 60.54 1.69 0.86 1.44
15-Apr-97 57.15 57.43 1.2 0.28 0.49
28-Jan-97 58.69 58.03 1.43 -0.66 -1.12
13-Jun-95 39.32 39.56 0.45 0.24 0.62
09-May-95 38.71 38.52 0.42 -0.19 -0.49
05-Apr-94 31.52 31.85 0.98 0.33 1.06

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Go with that 0.5% Full Gap Up on $SPY after a 5-Day Low Trading System

0.5% Full Gap Up on $SPY after a 5-Day Low Trading System

reason to be bullish and to go with that full gap opening on $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)

here are the trading system rules we employed

  • $SPY closes at 5-day low closing during the previous trading day
  • During the current trading session opens above previous days high by more than 0.5% ( 0.5% full gap up opening)
  • go long at Open &
  • exit at current session’s close

below the backtest performance summary of  “0.5% Full Gap Up on $SPY after a 5-Day Low Trading System” since 2000.

0.5% Full Gap Up on $SPY after a 5-Day Low Trading System

below the historical trades generated by “0.5% Full Gap Up on $SPY after a 5-Day Low Trading System”  since 2000 , for your reference

pls note that , this study triggers only of if today’s $SPY open is above 166.21

Date Open Close Prev-High Full Gap Up Size Close  – Open Close – Open %
28-05-2013 166.85* ?? 165.38 0.89 ?? ??
03-08-2012 136.24 137.02 135.27 0.72 0.78 0.57
13-02-2012 131.8 131.84 130.97 0.64 0.04 0.03
28-11-2011 115.7 115.86 113.92 1.56 0.16 0.14
07-09-2011 114.35 115.82 112.8 1.37 1.47 1.29
17-08-2010 103.06 103.44 102.52 0.53 0.38 0.37
02-08-2010 105.71 106.44 104.65 1.02 0.73 0.69
10-05-2010 108.8 109.13 106.88 1.8 0.33 0.3
23-11-2009 103.04 103.13 102.14 0.88 0.09 0.09
30-07-2009 91.54 91.39 90.85 0.76 -0.15 -0.16
16-12-2008 83.34 83.34 80.86 3.07 0 0
18-03-2008 116.63 119.32 115.42 1.05 2.69 2.3
11-03-2008 116.72 118.4 116.02 0.6 1.68 1.44
08-05-2002 86.31 87.89 85.72 0.68 1.58 1.83
13-11-2001 90.89 91.78 90.26 0.7 0.89 0.98
24-09-2001 79.89 80.68 79.31 0.74 0.79 0.98
23-03-2001 90.14 91.12 89.62 0.58 0.98 1.09

# sample size is bit small , but with a out liar adjusted profit factor of more than 60 , going with that full gap up opening is a favorable setup to bulls !!

ps: 166.85* at the time of writing 

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When ValueClick opens with 5% or more Gap Down

When ValueClick opens with 5% or more Gap Down

with ValueClick, Inc. ($VCLK) set to open around 26.33  with a massive gap down opening of more than 17%% , below we looked at where the VCLK stock closes from the open  on the days of 5% or more gap down openings since the stock went to IPO in June 2000

Below the 5% or more gap down openings on $VCLK , and how #VCLK Stock fared from open to close.

As can be  seen in the table below

  • this will the 25th ttime since Jun 2000, where $VCLK is opening with gap down opening of more than 5%
  • 18/24 (75%) times the VCLK stock closed above from the opening price
  • the average change % from Open till Close is  2.88%
  • the median change% from Open till Close is 1.9%
  • The average change% if the VCLK stock closes up from Open is  4.63 %
  • The average change% if the VCLK stock closes down from Open is -2.37 %
  • the maximum loss stands at -5% , during the previous instances of VCLK stock opening with more than 5% gap down

VCLK 5% or more gap down openings since Jun 2000

$VCLK 5% or more gap down Openings since Jun 2000

odds favor to fade that gap down opening with a 75% win rate to come into the money at the time of close.

When FB opens with 2% or more Gap Up

When FB opens with 2% or more Gap Up

with Facebook Inc. ($FB) set to open with a gap up opening of ~2.7% , here is how the FB stock closed from Open to Close ,whenever it opened with a gap up of more than 2%

Below the 2% or more gap up openings on $FB , and how FB  Stock fared from open to close.

As can be  seen in the table below , the trading odds for longs initiated at open tick and exiting at the close of the trading session are

  • Winners : 7
  • Losers : 4
  • % Winners : 64%
  • Average Change % : 0.30
  • Median Change % : 0.82
  • Maximum Gain % : 4.12
  • Maximum Loss % : -5.07
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 2.29
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -3.19
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 0.72

FB 2% or more gap up openings since IPO

$FB 2% or more gap up openings since IPO

sample size is less to make any trading call either to fade the gap up or go with the gap up open !!

 

SPY Historical Intraday movements after ECB Rate Cute

SPY Historical Intraday movements after ECB Rate Cute

as ECB cuts eurozone interest rate to new record low of 0.5% we looked at how the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) fared from open to close on the day of ECB rate cut.

since 2000 this is 1oth time ECB is cutting an interest rate ( source : http://www.ecb.int/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html)

below a look at how SPY fared from Open to close on those previous 9 occasions

  • as shown in the table below 7/9 times the $SPY  closed below where it opened at.
  • the average change from open to close stands at -0.4%
  • the max intraday loss was at -2.73% , on 12 Nov 2008
  • the max intraday gain was at 2.58% , on 21 Jan 2009$SPY intraday movements on the day ECB cuts Interest rates

20 largest Netflix stock Gap up openings

20 largest Netflix stock Gap up openings

with Netflix Stock ($NFLX)  trading up at 215.4  and up by 23.5% ( at the time of writing)  , assuming if NFLX Stock price opens there , that would be the Second largest NFLX  gap up opening since NFLX went public

Below the 20  largest gap up  openings on Netflix Stock , and how NFLX  fared from open to close. as can be  seen in the table below , 12/20  ( 60%) times it closed above from where it opened, but nothing to cheer about , as the other 8 times when it lost , it lost big . The average change % from open to close if the stock gains stands at 2.36% as against 8.12% when the stock closes below the open.

20 Netflix Stock  largest gap up openings since the stock went public

10 largest GLD gap down openings

10 largest GLD gap down openings

Ten Largest Gold Gap Down Openings

with SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD) trading down at 136.27 and down by 5.34% ( at the time of writing)  , assuming if GLD opens there , that would be the largest GLD gap down opening since GLD started trading.

Below the 10 largest gap down openings on $GLD , and how GLD fared from open to close. as can be  seen in the table below , 7/10 times it closed above from where it opened, but nothing to cheer about , as the other 3 times when it lost , it lost big . The average change % from open to close stands at -0.11%

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) 10 largest gap down openings