Anatomy of Russell 2000 Index Bear Markets

Anatomy of Russell 2000 Index Bear Markets

ps: if some one can educate me the difference between the Russell 2000 data from finance.yahoo.com and to that of  Russell 2000® Price Index (RU2000PR) from Fred , would be grateful

As FRED Russell data provides a a bit longer term dating back to 1978 , while yahoo data only goes back to 1987, this $STUDY is done on RU2000PR data from FRED

above table for your editing purposes

 

Bull Start RU2000 Bull End RU2000 Gains % Bear End RU2000 % Bull End % Bull Start 1st All Time High RU2000 Gains %
14-Nov-16 3227.34 31-Aug-18 4326.21 34.05 17-Dec-18 3425.03 -20.83 ongoing
02-Jan-13 2170.66 23-Jun-15 3220.39 48.36 11-Feb-16 2370.22 -26.40 9.19 14-Nov-16 3227.34 36.16
27-Apr-11 2133.11 29-Apr-11 2150.47 0.81 03-Oct-11 1514.74 -29.56 -28.99 02-Jan-13 2170.66 43.30
10-Nov-04 1515.07 13-Jul-07 2126.86 40.38 09-Mar-09 853.09 -59.89 -43.69 27-Apr-11 2133.11 150.05
29-Dec-99 1237.32 09-Mar-00 1508.16 21.89 09-Oct-02 812.90 -46.10 -34.30 10-Nov-04 1515.07 86.38
30-Sep-91 448.16 21-Apr-98 1224.96 173.33 08-Oct-98 773.32 -36.87 72.55 29-Dec-99 1237.32 60.00
03-Aug-89 433.70 09-Oct-89 448.07 3.31 31-Oct-90 295.86 -33.97 -31.78 30-Sep-91 448.16 51.48
12-Dec-85 314.47 21-Aug-87 432.14 37.42 28-Oct-87 263.28 -39.08 -16.28 03-Aug-89 433.70 64.73
04-Nov-82 210.55 24-Jun-83 313.38 48.84 25-Jul-84 231.85 -26.02 10.12 12-Dec-85 314.47 35.64
17-Jul-80 153.46 15-Jun-81 210.17 36.95 12-Aug-82 148.89 -29.16 -2.98 04-Nov-82 210.55 41.41
29-Dec-78 100.00 08-Feb-80 152.81 52.81 27-Mar-80 111.94 -26.75 11.94 17-Jul-80 153.46 37.09
avg 605 45.29 343 -34.06 -5.42 440 60.62
med 406 37.42 310 -29.56 -9.63 452 47.39
min 2 0.81 944 -59.89 -43.69 779 35.64
max 2395 173.33 48 -26.02 72.55 84 150.05

Definitions:

Bull Start -> this is the first all time high closing of index , after going through the bear market

Bull End -> this is the final all time high closing of index

Bear End -> this is the lowest closing value of index , from the all time high closing value , that is at-least 20% lesser value

1st All Time High ->  Bull Start

% Bull End -> this is the percentage loss , from the final all time high to lowest bear market close

% Bull Start -> this is the percentage loss , from the 1st all time high ( i’e from the break out point ) to lowest bear market close , some times this can be positive value , like during the last bear market in Jun 2015 to Feb 2016

Gains % -> percentage gains from the lowest close during the bear market to the next , 1st all time high close

note that all the analysis is done on close values and not on intra-day high or intra-day low values

Average loss & Duration in days during bear market

Bull End RU2000 Bear End RU2000 % Loss Duration Corresponding Values
31-Aug-18 4326.21 17-Dec-18 3425.03 -20.83 108++
23-Jun-15 3220.39 11-Feb-16 2370.22 -26.4 233
29-Apr-11 2150.47 03-Oct-11 1514.74 -29.56 157
13-Jul-07 2126.86 09-Mar-09 853.09 -59.89 605
09-Mar-00 1508.16 09-Oct-02 812.9 -46.1 944
21-Apr-98 1224.96 08-Oct-98 773.32 -36.87 170
09-Oct-89 448.07 31-Oct-90 295.86 -33.97 387
21-Aug-87 432.14 28-Oct-87 263.28 -39.08 68
24-Jun-83 313.38 25-Jul-84 231.85 -26.02 397
15-Jun-81 210.17 12-Aug-82 148.89 -29.16 423
08-Feb-80 152.81 27-Mar-80 111.94 -26.75 48
avg -35.4 343 2795.6 09-Aug-19
med -31.8 310 2952.0 07-Jul-19
min -26.0 48 3200.5 18-Oct-18
max -59.9 944 1735.2 01-Apr-21

 

the average and or median values are just an indication , and to gauge how far the current bear market can do based on previous 10 bear markets since 1980 till date , and not a PREDICTION.

if the median value is used as an approximation , we are looking at RUT price to go down to 2950 ( or the RUT value from yahoo finance to about 1180 , from the current levels of 1380) and the bear market to last till Jul 2019 or there about’s

 

Average Recovery in days from bear market

 

Bull End RU2000 Bull Start RU2000 Duration Corresponding Value
31-Aug-18 4326.21
23-Jun-15 3220.39 14-Nov-16 3227.34 510
29-Apr-11 2150.47 02-Jan-13 2170.66 614
13-Jul-07 2126.86 27-Apr-11 2133.11 1384
09-Mar-00 1508.16 10-Nov-04 1515.07 1707
21-Apr-98 1224.96 29-Dec-99 1237.32 617
09-Oct-89 448.07 30-Sep-91 448.16 721
21-Aug-87 432.14 03-Aug-89 433.7 713
24-Jun-83 313.38 12-Dec-85 314.47 902
15-Jun-81 210.17 04-Nov-82 210.55 507
08-Feb-80 152.81 17-Jul-80 153.46 160
avg 784 22-Oct-20
med 665 26-Jun-20
min 160 07-Feb-19
max 1707 04-May-23

this is just again an indication based on the past bear markets , guessing when the next all time high value will be recaptured , based on the worst bear market , it can take till May- 2023 ( roughly 4 years and 5 months from now on ), and optimistically if we use a median value , we are looking at Jun-2020

finally as  John Bogle says “Stay The Course” , and don’t do silly things of timing the markets , like getting out now, and thinking will reenter at a lower value than the current RUT close , as no one except liars know when and where the exact bear market bottom is , remember the quote by Bernard Baruch

Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars. 

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