When $SPX posts the first 5-day losing streak of the year

$SPX first 5-day losing streak of the year since 1950

with $SPX posting it’s first 5-day losing streak of 2013 , below the details of $SPX trading odds for the next 20 trading odds since 1950

below the trading strategy rules that we applied

  • for the first time in the calendar year $SPX posts a 5 day decline (further $SPX  5 day declines during the rest of the year are ignored )
  • go long at close
  • exit after 20 trading days

trading odds for next 20 trading days , when $SPX declines for 5 days in row for the first time in the year since 1950

  • Winners : 41
  • Losers : 19
  • % Winners : 68%
  • Average Change % : 1.86
  • Median Change % : 1.62
  • Maximum Gain % : 11.55
  • Maximum Loss % : -8.51
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 3.90
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -2.55
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.53
  • Average Absolute Change% : 3.47

below the table with how SPX index fared over the next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 5 trading days , after falling for 5 days in row , for the first time in the year , since 1950.

$SPX first time declines of 5 days in row in the year, since 1950

as you can see in the above table , ( really!!  did you notice it ??) ,

  • 2006, 2005, 1998 were the only three years where $SPX  didn’t have 5-day losing streaks for the whole year
  • Also note that in the year 1960 , the first trading day of the year started with a consecutive 5- day decline ( no idea why during that year the trading started so late starting at 12th Jan 1960 , I wasn’t born then , if you could tell us why the market was closed between 1st Jan to 11th Jan in 1960 , the rest of the readers would be thankful to you)

So how does the rest of the year looks like after the first 5-day decline

below the table with the details of $SPX first 5-day decline in the year , and the year end closing.

Date Close Trading day Year end Close Rest of the Year Change % Trading days left in the Year Avg Gains Per trading day
25-Sep-13 1692.77 185 ?? ?? 67
10-Apr-12 1358.59 180 1426.19 4.98 70 0.07
07-Jun-11 1284.94 177 1257.6 -2.13 75 -0.03
02-Jul-10 1022.58 176 1257.64 22.99 76 0.30
20-Feb-09 770.05 174 1115.1 44.81 78 0.57
22-Jan-08 1310.5 172 903.25 -31.08 81 -0.38
27-Feb-07 1399.04 171 1468.36 4.95 80 0.06
24-Feb-04 1139.09 169 1211.92 6.39 83 0.08
22-Jan-03 878.36 168 1111.92 26.59 84 0.32
07-Feb-02 1080.17 164 879.82 -18.55 88 -0.21
23-Feb-01 1245.86 161 1148.08 -7.85 87 -0.09
14-Apr-00 1356.56 156 1320.28 -2.67 96 -0.03
01-Mar-99 1236.16 152 1469.25 18.86 100 0.19
12-Dec-97 953.39 151 970.43 1.79 102 0.02
20-Feb-96 640.65 146 740.74 15.62 108 0.14
03-Aug-95 558.75 145 615.93 10.23 107 0.10
29-Mar-94 452.48 142 459.27 1.50 110 0.01
23-Apr-93 437.03 139 466.45 6.73 114 0.06
07-Oct-92 404.25 137 435.71 7.78 117 0.07
08-Jan-91 314.9 133 417.09 32.45 120 0.27
30-Jan-90 322.98 130 330.22 2.24 123 0.02
14-Jun-89 323.83 128 353.4 9.13 124 0.07
10-Aug-88 261.9 127 277.72 6.04 126 0.05
08-Sep-87 313.56 125 247.08 -21.20 128 -0.17
11-Sep-86 235.18 123 242.17 2.97 130 0.02
21-Feb-85 180.19 120 211.28 17.25 132 0.13
13-Jan-84 167.02 112 167.24 0.13 141 0.00
02-Aug-83 162.01 110 164.93 1.80 143 0.01
08-Mar-82 107.34 103 140.64 31.02 150 0.21
23-Jan-81 130.23 97 122.55 -5.90 156 -0.04
26-Mar-80 98.68 93 135.76 37.58 160 0.23
27-Feb-79 96.13 91 107.94 12.29 162 0.08
09-Jan-78 90.64 86 96.11 6.03 166 0.04
23-Mar-77 100.2 82 95.1 -5.09 170 -0.03
12-Apr-76 100.2 78 107.46 7.25 175 0.04
24-Mar-75 81.42 74 90.19 10.77 179 0.06
10-Jan-74 92.39 65 68.56 -25.79 188 -0.14
27-Feb-73 110.9 56 97.55 -12.04 196 -0.06
25-Apr-72 107.12 51 118.05 10.20 200 0.05
25-Mar-71 99.61 47 102.09 2.49 206 0.01
29-Jan-70 85.69 42 92.15 7.54 212 0.04
20-Feb-69 99.79 36 92.06 -7.75 214 -0.04
19-Jan-68 95.24 31 103.86 9.05 195 0.05
04-Apr-67 89.22 27 96.47 8.13 224 0.04
01-Feb-66 92.16 21 80.33 -12.84 231 -0.06
21-Jul-65 84.07 20 92.43 9.94 232 0.04
24-Jul-64 83.46 18 84.75 1.55 235 0.01
16-Jul-63 69.14 17 75.02 8.50 234 0.04
22-Mar-62 70.4 8 63.1 -10.37 244 -0.04
27-Mar-61 64.35 6 71.55 11.19 244 0.05
12-Jan-60 58.41 1 58.11 -0.51 251 0.00
10-Aug-59 58.62 250 59.89 2.17 3 0.72
11-Feb-58 41.11 247 55.21 34.30 5 6.86
06-Feb-57 43.82 240 39.99 -8.74 12 -0.73
13-Feb-56 43.58 233 46.67 7.09 18 0.39
17-Jan-55 34.58 231 45.48 31.52 21 1.50
08-Jun-54 28.34 228 35.98 26.96 24 1.12
12-Jan-53 25.86 221 24.81 -4.06 30 -0.14
18-Feb-52 23.74 217 26.57 11.92 33 0.36
16-May-51 21.69 212 23.77 9.59 37 0.26
13-Jul-50 16.69 211 20.43 22.41 38 0.59
avg 6.47 0.22
med 6.56 0.04
%up 0.73 0.73

$SPX year end targets based on the above data

we hate to give year end targets , but for the fun of it , as there are 67 trading days,  left in the year , and if the average gains per day of 0.22% are realized ( as per the above data set),

67*0.22% = 14.7% ,

giving us an year end target of 1941.76 !! 

its a bit high ( even though , none of the bulls won’t have a problem with that year end target) and the usual problem with the averages , so lets take the median gains per day for the rest of the year , which are at 0.04% ,

67*0.04% = 2.97% ,

giving us an year end target of 1743.08 !!

if we take recent history from 1980’s alone as opposed to since 1950’s data

year end target as per above pattern , taking in to account of the average gains per trading day for the rest of the year , stands at , 67*0.07% = 4.61% , year end target of 1770.79

taking in to account of the median gains per trading day for the rest of the year , stands at , 67*0.06% = 4.05% , year end target of 1761.38

Whats your year end target ??

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