well $SPX corrected ! what next ?

well $SPX corrected ! 

$SPX corrections since 1950

with $SPX ( S&P 500 cash index ) falling by more than 10% form the All Time High Close ( printed on 26th Jan 2018 close , with a close of 2872.87 ) and down by more than 10% as on 8th Feb close at 2581 , a loss of minus 10.16% ,

below the $SPX forward 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 trading returns , when $SPX corrects ( the first time close of 10% below from the all time high close ) , since 1950

Date t+1% t+2% t+3% t+4% t+5% t+10% t+20%
08-Feb-18 ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
24-Aug-15 -1.35 2.50 4.99 5.05 4.17 4.02 2.62
26-Nov-07 1.49 4.39 4.44 5.25 4.63 7.73 6.34
14-Apr-00 3.31 6.27 5.23 5.75 5.40 8.23 7.06
29-Sep-99 1.13 1.14 2.86 2.60 4.50 1.35 2.23
14-Aug-98 1.97 3.62 3.32 2.71 1.74 -3.35 -3.11
27-Oct-97 5.12 4.81 3.04 4.29 7.07 5.03 7.95
17-Aug-90 0.21 -1.82 -3.44 -6.34 -4.98 -1.61 -3.07
30-Jan-90 1.89 1.80 2.46 2.75 2.07 2.49 2.76
15-Oct-87 -5.16 -24.57 -20.55 -13.32 -16.72 -17.88 -16.63
13-Feb-84 1.07 0.84 0.76 0.51 -0.20 1.21 1.18
24-Aug-81 -0.29 -0.43 -1.59 -1.13 -2.16 -5.99 -7.03
27-Apr-73 -0.24 -0.12 1.12 2.79 3.52 0.88 0.66
19-Jun-69 -0.59 -1.04 0.08 -0.24 0.01 2.44 -2.35
05-Mar-68 1.76 1.57 1.49 2.75 2.86 1.45 5.61
16-May-66 -0.92 0.84 0.72 1.21 2.12 2.04 3.15
30-Apr-62 0.71 1.15 1.98 1.53 1.20 -3.28 -14.93
04-Mar-60 -1.01 -2.02 -0.97 -1.36 -0.60 0.81 1.58
21-Nov-56 1.05 0.45 0.54 -0.54 -0.65 4.79 3.13
11-Oct-55 1.76 1.45 1.03 1.35 2.08 4.49 9.34
09-Jun-53 -0.25 0.64 0.93 0.08 -0.21 2.20 3.86
29-Jun-50 1.43 1.15 2.12 2.69 1.32 -3.27 1.43
avg 0.62 0.12 0.50 0.88 0.82 0.66 0.56
med 1.05 1.14 1.12 1.53 1.74 1.45 2.23
# 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
% wins 62 71 81 71 67 71 71
avg win  1.76 2.17 2.18 2.75 3.05 3.28 3.93
avg loss -1.23 -5.00 -6.64 -3.82 -3.65 -5.90 -7.85

18/21 times $SPX closed , 3 trading days later for an average of 0.5% ( which includes 1987 Oct crash ) , removing that outlier , 17/20 times $SPX closed higher , 3 trading days later , for an average of 1.56% , and a median of 1.31%

2) of-course $SPY has smaller history only dating back to 1993 , below the $SPY returns , when $SPX corrects ( a 10% fall from ATH close ) , since 1993

Date $SPY t+1% t+2% t+3% t+4% t+5%
08-Feb-18 257.63 ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
24-Aug-15 179.93 -1.18 2.62 5.16 5.16 4.31
26-Nov-07 113.76 1.15 4.38 4.42 5.47 4.77
14-Apr-00 97.31 3.49 6.23 5.24 5.74 4.60
29-Sep-99 90.29 1.53 1.31 3.10 3.01 4.58
14-Aug-98 74.43 2.12 4.00 3.74 3.12 2.30
27-Oct-97 60.54 5.77 5.48 3.15 5.59 7.81
avg 2.15 4.00 4.14 4.68 4.73
med 1.82 4.19 4.08 5.32 4.59

6/6 times $SPY closed , 5 trading days later for an average of 4.73% , and a median of 4.59%

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