$SPX gains by more than 10% in the first half , how does second half fare ?

$SPX gains by more than 10% in the first half year

With S&P 500 Index ( $SPX) gaining by 12.63% for the first half of the year , below the details with how $SPX fared over the next 1 month , 1 quarter , and for the rest of the year , since 1950

this is the 20th instance of $SPX gaining more than 10% in the first half of the year , since 1950. The last $SPX gained more than 10% was in 2003 !

Winning odds for the next month  after $SPX gains by more than 10% in the first HY

  • Winners : 11
  • Losers : 8
  • % Winners : 58%
  • Average Change % : 1.73
  • Median Change % : 3.18
  • Maximum Gain % : 8.84
  • Maximum Loss % : -6.77
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 4.97
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -2.73
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.82

Average change for any random one month holding period stands at 0.69% , since 1950

Winning odds for the next Quarter ( i.e 3 month holding period) after $SPX gains by more than 10% in the first HY

  • Winners : 12
  • Losers : 7
  • % Winners : 63%
  • Average Change % : 1.69
  • Median Change % : 3.23
  • Maximum Gain % : 10.65
  • Maximum Loss % : -11.89
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 6.27
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -6.16
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.02

Average change for any random three month holding period stands at 2.01%

 Winning odds for the next Half Year  ( i.e 6 month holding period) after $SPX gains by more than 10% in first HY

  • Winners : 15
  • Losers : 4
  • % Winners : 79%
  • Average Change % : 7.09
  • Median Change % : 9.64
  • Maximum Gain % : 23.18
  • Maximum Loss % : -18.72
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 10.91
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -7.26
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.50

Average change for any random six month holding period stands at 4.23% , since 1950

Below the table with $SPX change % details for the next 1 Month, 1 Quarter , and rest of the year  after $SPX gains by more than 10% in the first HY

$SPX gains of more than 10% in 1st HY, since 1950

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2 thoughts on “$SPX gains by more than 10% in the first half , how does second half fare ?

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