$SPX 100 Point Thresholds
With S&P 500 Index ( $SPX) crossing above 1700 for the first time ever today, below a table with the details of how many calender days it took to conquer each new round number since 4th Jun 1968 , when $SPX crossed above 100 for the first time.
In the table below, we also list the first day that the $SPX closed above each 100-point threshold from 100 to 1700 , and what were the returns over the next 1/5/10/20 trading days.
ps: we know that a jump from 100 to 200 is indeed 100% gain , while a jump from 1600 to 1700 is only 6.25% gain , but the point is we are trying to see how those big new round numbers which were widely-watched and that have some psychological significance to factor in behaved in the past
pps: there were few successful traders like Monroe Trout who likes to trade the “magnet effect”- the tendency of markets to get to round numbers.
Below the trading odds for Longs for one trading day holding period , after a new round number is breached
- Winners : 11
- Losers : 5
- % Winners : 69%
- Average Change % : 0.29
- Median Change % : 0.18
- Maximum Gain % : 1.78
- Maximum Loss % : -0.54
- Average Gain %if Winner : 0.58
- Average Loss % if Loser : -0.35
- Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.68
Below the trading odds for Longs for a ten trading day holding period , after a new round number is breached
- Winners : 13
- Losers : 3
- % Winners : 81%
- Average Change % : 1.19
- Median Change % : 1.11
- Maximum Gain % : 5.78
- Maximum Loss % : -3.30
- Average Gain %if Winner : 1.86
- Average Loss % if Loser : -1.72
- Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.09
if the past performance was any thing repeatable , don’t get frightened by the new big round number , the rally might still have some legs to go , with 81% winning trades and an average profit per trade at 1.2% for a ten day holding period and a 3.9% average gain with a 75% win rate for a 62 trading days ( a.k.a 3 months) holding period.
Below the table with $SPX closing above new round numbers from 100 to 1700 , and the returns going forward
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