$SPX 100 Point Thresholds

$SPX 100 Point Thresholds

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 With S&P 500 Index ( $SPX) crossing above 1700 for  the first time ever today, below a table with the details of how many calender days it took to conquer each new round number since 4th Jun 1968 , when $SPX crossed above 100 for the first time.

In the table below, we also list the first day that the $SPX  closed above each 100-point threshold from 100 to 1700 , and what were the returns over the next 1/5/10/20 trading days.

ps: we know that a jump from 100 to 200 is indeed 100% gain , while a jump from 1600 to 1700 is only 6.25% gain , but the point is we are trying to see how those big new round numbers which were  widely-watched and that have some psychological significance to factor in behaved in the past 

pps: there were few successful traders like  Monroe Trout who likes to trade the “magnet effect”- the tendency of markets to get to round numbers.

Below the trading odds for Longs for one trading day holding period , after a new round number is breached 

  • Winners : 11
  • Losers : 5
  • % Winners : 69%
  • Average Change % : 0.29
  • Median Change % : 0.18
  • Maximum Gain % : 1.78
  • Maximum Loss % : -0.54
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 0.58
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -0.35
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.68

Below the trading odds for Longs for a ten trading day holding period , after a new round number is breached 

  • Winners : 13
  • Losers : 3
  • % Winners : 81%
  • Average Change % : 1.19
  • Median Change % : 1.11
  • Maximum Gain % : 5.78
  • Maximum Loss % : -3.30
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 1.86
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -1.72
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.09

if the past performance was any thing repeatable , don’t get frightened by the new big round number , the rally might still have some legs to go , with 81% winning trades and an average profit per trade at 1.2% for a ten day holding period and a 3.9% average gain with a 75% win rate for a 62 trading days ( a.k.a 3 months) holding period.

Below the table with $SPX closing above new round numbers from 100 to 1700 , and the returns going forward

$SPX path from 100 to 1700

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