Priceline Earnings Day Cheat Sheet

Priceline Earnings Day Historical Stock Performance

With priceline.com Incorporated ($PCLN) releasing  Q1 2013 earnings After Market Close today ( 9th May 2013) , below the details of $PCLN stock price reaction post earnings announcement since 2000 , regardless whether the management beats EPS /Revenue estimates at the earnings announcement.

Over Night Gap Movement for  $PCLN stock price post priceline earnings are reported

here is how the $PCLN stock price gap’ed before earnings are reported

below the backtest performance summary for holding the $PCLN longs overnight before Priceline Earnings are announced 

  • Winners : 33
  • Losers : 20
  • % Winners : 62%
  • Average Change % : 1.97
  • Median Change % : 0.85
  • Maximum Gain % : 27.57
  • Maximum Loss % : -25.54
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 7.67
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -7.44
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.03
  • Average Absolute Change% : 7.44

barring that mega gap down of 15.4% on 8th Aug 2012 ( post Q2 2012 Earnings) , the stock favored over night longs , here are the odds for overnight longs since for $PCLN stocks for the earnings reports since 2009.

  • Winners : 12
  • Losers : 4
  • % Winners : 75%
  • Average Change % : 3.28
  • Median Change % : 3.33
  • Maximum Gain % : 11.23
  • Maximum Loss % : -15.40
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 6.08
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -5.13
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.19

Intraday Movements from Open to Close  Movement for Priceline stock price after earnings are reported

here is how the $PCLN stock price moved from market on open till market on close on the day earnings are reported , assuming one is holding on to $PCLN longs

  • Winners : 20
  • Losers : 33
  • % Winners : 38%
  • Average Change % : -1.31
  • Median Change % : -0.33
  • Maximum Gain % : 11.63
  • Maximum Loss % : -20.18
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 4.30
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -4.85
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 0.88
  • Average Absolute Change% : 4.47

Full day $PCLN stock price movement ( change from previous close to earnings day’s close)

here is $PCLN stock price moved on the day after earnings are reported ( if earnings are reported AMC, the next trading day change is considered as the earnings day change, for the earnings announcements Before Market Open , change on the earnings day is considered , as the earnings day change)

ps: assuming one is holding on to $PCLN longs here are the trading odds

  • Winners : 33
  • Losers : 20
  • % Winners : 62%
  • Average Change % : 0.75
  • Median Change % : 2.05
  • Maximum Gain % : 32.49
  • Maximum Loss % : -26.84
  • Average Gain %if Winner : 8.61
  • Average Loss % if Loser : -12.87
  • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 0.67
  • Average Absolute Change% : 9.79

Historical $PCLN Stock Price Movements on Earnings day

Below the table with historical stock price movements of  priceline.com Incorporated, on  earnings reporting day

priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) Stock Earnings Day Cheat Sheet since 2000

  1. the stock on average can move +/- 10% this or that way , indeed 21/53 times moved more than +/-10% , and 9/53 times moved +/-20%  
  2. since 2009 earnings the stock opened with a gap-up 75% ( 12/16) times , with an average overnight change of 3.3% and with a max loss of -15.4%

definitions

  • C20: Change from day before Earnings Close to Next days’s Open
  • C20 %: Change from day before Earnings Close to Next days’s Open in percentage
  • O2C : Change from Earnings Day’s Open to Close
  • O2C% : Change from Earnings Day’s Open to Close in percentage
  • C2C : Full day Change on the Earnings Reporting day 
  • C2C% : Full day Change on the Earnings Reporting day  in percentage

ps: The earnings data is from earnings.com

pps: Average Absolute Change% data might be useful to gauge the volatility on the earnings day , and or to calculate the straddle pay off factor for options traders

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