Buying the First 52 Week High of the Year on $SPX – Short term perspective

Buying the First 52 Week High of the Year on $SPX

$SPX 52 week high stock chart

With $SPX closing at 52 week high for the first time in the year 2014 , below the trading odds for longs for the next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 trading days , for buying the first 52 week high of the year on $SPX

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 52 30 57.7 0.03 0.09 0.44 -0.53 0.83 -2.73
t+2 52 39 75.0 0.44 0.39 0.91 -0.94 0.96 -3.60
t+3 52 39 75.0 0.48 0.53 1.08 -1.30 0.83 -4.65
t+4 52 39 75.0 0.58 0.70 1.21 -1.31 0.92 -3.86
t+5 52 39 75.0 0.68 0.80 1.39 -1.46 0.95 -3.35
t+10 52 38 73.1 0.99 1.24 2.06 -1.94 1.06 -5.90
t+20 52 33 63.5 1.23 1.22 3.01 -1.86 1.62 -4.88

Data is since 1951 from Yahoo Finance .

for an apple to apple to comparison , below the trading odds for longs for the the next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 trading days , for buying the 52 week high of the year on $SPX , other than the first one in the year 

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 1462 809 55.3 0.06 0.07 0.44 -0.42 1.05 -6.62
t+2 1462 822 56.2 0.07 0.09 0.64 -0.66 0.97 -6.12
t+3 1462 848 58.0 0.10 0.16 0.79 -0.86 0.92 -6.12
t+4 1462 856 58.5 0.12 0.22 0.93 -1.01 0.91 -7.27
t+5 1462 868 59.4 0.12 0.28 1.04 -1.22 0.85 -7.35
t+10 1462 865 59.2 0.23 0.46 1.58 -1.73 0.91 -8.74
t+20 1456 875 60.1 0.34 0.67 2.29 -2.60 0.88 -10.82

thus historically buying the first 52 week high of the year outperforms , buying the other 52 week highs , for short term holding periods

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