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$DJIA & $SPX  gains for 7 weeks in row 

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with $SPX and $DJIA gaining  for 7 weeks in row , below the trading odds for the next 1/2/3/4/5 trading weeks , assuming one goes long at the close of the week ( i.e 22 Nov 2013 in this case , and exits over the next 1 week at close ( t+1 ) and so on ..

1) when ever $SPX gains for 7 or more weeks in row , since 1950.

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 60 33 55.0 0.19 0.14 1.04 -0.86 1.21 -2.08
t+2 60 33 55.0 0.37 0.16 1.42 -0.92 1.55 -2.91
t+3 60 39 65.0 0.68 0.73 1.61 -1.05 1.54 -3.32
t+4 60 41 68.3 1.11 1.22 2.17 -1.18 1.84 -5.53
t+5 60 46 76.7 1.39 1.41 2.23 -1.34 1.66 -5.28
Swing High 60 57 95.0 0.82 0.71 1.01 -2.82 0.36 -5.28


Swing high ( for bulls)  row is , assuming one goes long at then exits at first profitable close , or exit at the end of the fifth trading day with loss.

57/60  ( 95% ) times $SPX closed higher over the next 5 trading weeks at some weekly close .

2) when ever $SPX gains for exactly 7 weeks in row , since 1950.

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 27 16 59.3 0.52 0.42 1.35 -0.67 2.00 -1.50
t+2 27 17 63.0 0.62 0.46 1.52 -0.90 1.69 -2.91
t+3 27 17 63.0 0.70 0.79 1.78 -1.14 1.56 -3.32
t+4 27 19 70.4 1.24 1.53 2.49 -1.72 1.45 -5.53
t+5 27 20 74.1 1.47 1.56 2.60 -1.77 1.47 -5.28
Swing High 27 25 92.6 0.86 0.89 1.19 -3.17 0.37 -5.28

25/27  ( 93% ) times $SPX closed higher over the next 5 trading weeks at some weekly close .

3) when ever $DJIA gains for 7 or more weeks in row , since 1900.

 

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 107 65 60.7 0.27 0.40 1.28 -1.29 0.99 -4.76
t+2 107 62 57.9 0.34 0.67 1.84 -1.72 1.07 -12.60
t+3 107 72 67.3 0.41 0.79 1.86 -2.58 0.72 -9.85
t+4 107 70 65.4 0.49 1.10 2.34 -3.01 0.78 -16.54
t+5 107 72 67.3 0.57 1.33 2.76 -3.92 0.70 -18.37
Swing High 107 97 90.7 0.40 0.82 1.19 -7.17 0.17 -18.37

97/107  ( 91% ) times $DJIA closed higher over the next 5 trading weeks at some weekly close .

that max loss of -18.37% occurred during from the week of 2nd Sep 1932 over the next 5 weeks .

4) when ever $DJIA gains for exactly 7 weeks in row , since 1900.

Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 42 32 76.2 0.75 0.78 1.31 -1.05 1.25 -1.87
t+2 42 29 69.0 1.09 1.10 2.02 -0.98 2.05 -2.30
t+3 42 33 78.6 0.77 0.86 2.09 -4.10 0.51 -9.85
t+4 42 30 71.4 0.88 1.43 2.55 -3.29 0.78 -12.95
t+5 42 30 71.4 0.86 0.84 3.12 -4.77 0.65 -14.80
Swing High 42 41 97.6 1.03 0.90 1.21 -6.43 0.19 -6.43

41/42  ( 98% ) times $DJIA closed higher over the next 5 trading weeks at some weekly close .

that max loss of -6.42% came during the week starting from 14 May 1965 , over the next five trading weeks .

conclusion : more upside coming ??

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